Wheat Upside Leader in Holiday Shortened Week

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Mixed trade across the Ag Space this AM to kick off the Holiday shortened week.  Wheat is the upside leader as weekend talks with Russia/Ukraine failed to produce a peaceful solution with both sides resuming attacks.  Friday’s CFTC report confirmed record length by money managers in both corn and soybean meal, along with the largest combined long position across the 3 classes of wheat in over 4 years.  USDA production and WASDE updates on Friday.  Energy prices are higher as US/Iran exchanged military strikes over the weekend. Meanwhile Iran/Oman continue to negotiate terms to control shipping through the Straits of Hormuz. Spot WTI crude oil is up $2.50 near $94 per barrel, while RBOB is up $.05 per gallon with HO $.13 higher. Weekend weather saw rains across the NW corn and soybean belt along with the ECB, while mostly dry in between.  100+ degree heat across the plains and S. Midwest.  Heavy rains are expected for the central Midwest and ECB over the next 7 days with lighter precipitation for the far WCB and S. Midwest.  Moderate to heavy rains across WC and the interior south of Brazil.  Dry in Argentina.  Seasonally cool for much of SA growing areas with healthy rains across southern growing areas of Brazil.  Above normal temperatures for much of Europe while dry for much of Spain, France and Germany.  The US $$ is moderately lower while US equity markets are steady to lower.

Corn: 

Dec-26 futures are $.00 ½ higher at $5.37 ¼ while holding within Friday’s range. Conab is reporting Brazil’s 2025/26 2^nd crop harvest has reached 94% while AgRural reports the 2026/27 1^st crop plantings have reached 17%.  Look for US ratings to fall another 1-2% with harvest still in the single digits.

Soybeans: 

Nov-26 beans are $.04 lower at $13.05 ¾ in 2-sided trade after failing to push into new contract highs overnight.  Oct-26 meal is down $4.50 at $343.70 while Oct-26 oil is up 33 points at 69.22.  Crush margins are off another $.03 at $2.30 ½ bu. MM’s were net buyers of nearly 62k contracts of meal, extending their position to a record large 159k contracts.  The combined long position in the soybean complex swelled to a record 510k contracts.  China imported 12.14 mmt of soybeans in August, down 1% from Aug-25 however up nearly 6% from July.  In the first 8 months of 2026 imports from all sources reached 74.1 mmt up 1% YTD.  Exports in Q4 are expected to slow vs. YA as crush margins remain weak while China looks to lower the size of their hog herd.  Chinese purchase of US beans are likely approaching 12 mmt ahead of Xi visit to Washington later this month.  Higher new crop demand would leave little wiggle room for US yields to fall from the current 52.7 bpa forecast, or risk sharply lower stocks and even higher prices.

Wheat: 

Prices have pulled back to trading $.05-$.12 higher after trading as much as $.30 higher overnight.  CGO Dec-26 is $.08 ½ higher at $7.42 ½, KC Dec-26 is $.11 higher at $8.13 while Dec-26 MIAX is up $.05 ½ at $7.50 ½.  MM’s have their largest long position in CGO wheat since June-22 at 14.7k contracts, while their combined long position across the 3 classes of wheat at nearly 86k is the largest since May-22.  Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports 2026 winter wheat harvest has reached 98% with volume at 24.9 mmt.  Corn harvest is just underway.  Global buyers will increasingly be forced to seek replacement for ongoing logistical delays from the Black Sea region.

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