Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Sept 8.2026
September 8, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 lower while spreads were mixed and little changed. Near-term support for Dec-26 futures is at LW’s low of $5.26 ½ with resistance at the contract high of $5.49 ¾. Conab reports Brazil’s 2025/26 2nd crop harvest has reached 94% while AgRural reports the 2026/27 1st crop plantings are up to 17%. I look for US ratings to fall another 1-2% with harvest in the single digits. Export inspections at 65 mil. bu. were above expectations with 40 mil. bu. for 2025/26 MY while 25 mil. were for 2026/27. Final inspections for 2025/26 were a record high at 3.340 bil. bu. New crop inspections at 25 mil. bu. is down 2% vs. the USDA forecast of down 4%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 16 mil., Japan took 14 mil. while Colombia took 12 mil. For Friday’s USDA report I’ve got old crop stocks at 1.920 bil. bu. with slightly lower usage for ethanol partially offsetting higher exports.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans closing strong, up $.07-$.10, meal was down $4-$5 while oil surged late closing $.01 ½ lb. higher. Nov-26 beans appear poised to make another run at last week’s contract high at $13.24. Support for Oct-26 meal is at this month’s low of $336.10 while Oct-26 oil closed above both its 50 and 100-day MA’s. MM’s were net buyers of nearly 62k contracts of meal, extending their position to a record large 159k contracts. The combined long position in the soybean complex swelled to a record 510k contracts. China imported 12.14 mmt of soybeans in August, down 1% from Aug-25 however up nearly 6% from July. In the first 8 months of 2026 imports from all sources reached 74.1 mmt up 1% YTD. Exports in Q4 are expected to slow vs. YA as crush margins remain weak while China looks to lower their hog inventories. China’s US bean purchases are likely to exceed 12-13 mmt ahead of Xi visit to Washington later this month. Export inspections at 15.5 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Half were for old crop 25/26 MY while half were 26/27.
WHEAT
: Prices finished $.08-$.18 higher after trading as much as $.30 higher overnight. CGO Dec-26 was $.13 higher at $7.47, KC Dec-26 was $.16 ¾ higher at $8.19 while Dec-26 MIAX was up $.08 ¾ at $7.53 ¾. Weekend talks with Russia and Ukraine failed to produce a peaceful solution which was followed by missile and drone attacks by both sides. MM’s have their largest long position in CGO wheat since June-22 at 14.7k contracts, while their combined long position across the 3 classes at nearly 86k is the largest since May-22. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports 2026 winter wheat harvest has reached 98% with volume at 24.9 mmt, while corn harvest is just underway. Saudi Arabia cancelled their tender for 535k mt of wheat citing offers as too high. Export inspections at 13 mil. bu. were in line with expectations, however, below the 14 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 775 mil. bu. YTD inspections at 188 mil. bu. are down 28% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 15%.
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