Written Commentary
Oil Flow Picks Up
July 2, 2026
CRUDE OIL
August Crude was under additional pressure early Thursday and was getting close to entering the gap (66.96-65.70) from the open on March 2 that was made in the wake of the US and Israel attacks on Iran. Iran and the US concluded a round of indirect talks on Wednesday, with Qatar media reporting “positive progress,” on maritime issues regarding the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief for Iran. There was no indication that the any long term issues were resolved, including over whether Iran will be able to eventually charge ships for passage. The next meeting is not expected to occur until after the July 9 funeral processions for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. In the meantime, oil is flowing through the strait, with reports that a least five supertankers carrying a total 10 million barrels of Saudi oil loaded exited the Persian Gulf. Saudi Aramco has switched to spot pricing for its Asian customers from the normal set price list, and this is viewed as an indication that competition among the sellers is heating up.
NATURAL GAS
August Natural Gas has moved to the low end of a two-week range despite the heatwave over the eastern US. Daily highs are expected to reach 100 degrees in New York over the next couple of days, and the nation’s biggest electrical grid, PJM, which serves 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois has forecast that demand on July 2 will reach 166.3 gigawatts (GW), which would top the current record of 165.6 GW from 2006. World Weather Inc. says warmer than normal conditions and higher than usual cooling fuel demand will be most common through the next two weeks with the parts of southwestern US colder than normal through the next several days. The 6-10 and 8-14 day NWS maps show above normal temperatures across most of the lower 48 stated.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were followed crude lower overnight but they have yet to even approach their June lows. Crude prices are under pressure from the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but products are lagging as it will take time for that crude to be refined. Ukraine hit another Russian oil refinery overnight, which raises additional concerns about diesel supply. Russian President Putin suggested this week that they were considering a ban on diesel exports. The EIA report on Wednesday was negative for diesel and supportive for gasoline.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
