Brazil Coffee Harvest Delayed

COFFEE

After two sessions of sharp gains that took September Coffee to its highest level since January, the market was near unchanged early Thursday. Wet weather in Brazil coffee growing regions has slowed harvest and raised concerns about crop quality. Cooxupe, Brazil’s largest coffee co-operative, said on Wednesday its farmers had harvested 24.9% of their 2026 crop as of June 28 versus 31.4% a year earlier. Farmers have apparently become reluctant to sell as they try to assess the damage from the rain. Old crop supplies are tight, and the slow harvest it not helping alleviate that situation.

SUGAR

October Sugar was near unchanged on early Thursday following a rally on Wednesday to its highest level since May 22. Over the past two weeks, the market has rallied 1.5 cents (+11%), primarily off a heat wave and drought in Europe (especially France) that has threatened their beet crop, but nagging concerns that El Nino will cause problems with cane crops in India and southeast Asia have lent support as well. World Weather Inc. has the hot and dry conditions continuing in Europe for at least the next ten days and possibly for two weeks. The extreme heat moved off to the east this week, but more hot weather is expected late this weekend into next week, although it will not be as hot as last week. Forecasters have warned that beets in parts of Europe have withered, and not much relief is in sight. India’s rainfall is expected to improve over the coming week into mid-July, with central parts of the nation getting significant rainfall to help recently planted crops emerge and establish, but below normal rainfall is expected to return later in July and especially in August and September. Southern sugarcane areas need greater rain now. Southern Thailand and parts of Vietnam have dried out recently, raising the need for rain soon. Brazil sugarcane areas will not be threatened by any damaging cold and weather conditions should be drier than they have been, which should improve harvest conditions.

COCOA

September Cocoa was higher early Thursday, as it continued to consolidate its gains from the second half of June. The market has rallied off concerns that recent heavy rains in west Africa have cause problems with pod disease as well as for flowering for the upcoming main crop, but El Nino’s arrival is also on traders’ minds, as that can trigger unusually dry conditions later this year that can also hurt production. Fitch Solutions said it expects Ivory Coast to produce 1.7 million metric tons of cocoa in 2026/27, which would be down 17.5% from 2025/26, and they projected Ghana’s output to hold steady at 670,000 tons. The main-crop fertilizer window typically occurs around September, and Fitch warned that the high cost and limited availability resulting from the US/Iran war and the reduced effectiveness of fertilizers when conditions are dry could discourage usage.

COTTON

December Cotton was lower early Thursday but inside Wednesday’s range. The market has disregarded the USDA acreage report this week that put US all-cotton planted area at 9.85 million acres versus, up from 9.60 million in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. The focus today will begin with the export sales report. World Weather Inc. says west Texas and a few locations in the Blacklands may see some spotty rain and isolated thunderstorms during the coming week, which may may promote good growth in the short-term. The region will need timely rainfall as it heads into the second half of July. For the month of July, World Weather Inc expects west Texas rainfall to be erratic and often lighter than usual. Cotton conditions in most other US production areas are rated fair to very good, and recent rains should have improved crops considerably in the drier areas of the southeast.

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