Ag Trade Watching Weekly Export Sales
Grains are mixed. SH is down 4 cents and near 14.83. SMH is near 460.3. BOH is near 60.70.. CH is up 2 cents and near 6.79. WH is up 9 cents and near 7.44. KWH is up 12 cents and near 8.45. MWH is up 98cents and near 9.11. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper coffee, sugar and cotton are lower.
Soybean futures are finding resistance on technical selling, Argentina rains and unknown about futures China demand for US soybeans. Brazil soybeans are cheaper than US to China. There is talk that Brazil lack storage for a record crop which could force farmers to sell. This could weigh on Brazil export prices. Trade will be watching weekly US export sales closely. China remains closed for holiday but Malaysian palmoil opened lower and near 4 month low following lower US SBO and lower Crude. US farmers increased cash sales this week.
Corn futures is finding support after one private crop watcher lowered US 2023 corn acres due to higher wheat acres. There is also hope that some export demand could shift from SA to US. Still, even though on holiday China may be asking for Ukraine export prices and summer Brazil export prices. Trade will be watching for today’s ethanol data and weekly US export sales. CH has now rallied 20 cents from Mondays lows. Corn also following wheat bounce. Wheat was oversold with funds record short WH and Matif wheat futures. Cash US corn prices are near 7.00 which is increasing farmer selling.
New crop EU wheat cash prices are below cost of production. US plains are dry but another snow storm is possible next week. Trade may also be adding weather premium to futures due to forecast of colder than normal February temps. Weather watchers watching a polar vortex. Key remains record fund wheat short vs oversold tech signals and uncertain World 2023 supply. For now supply looks to exceed demand. Drop in US Dollar to 9 month lower may also be supporting wheat futures. WH is up 25-35 cents from Mondays lows.
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