Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
SOYBEANS
Soybeans were mixed. Talk of tighter US soybean supplies and drop in July open interest rallied SN. SU followed. Some look for USDA est of June 1 stocks to be supportive. Talk of drier US summer in west and north Midwest offered support to SX. Weekly US soybean exports were near 6 mil bu vs 4 last week and 9 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,094 vs 1,340 ly. USDA goal is near 2,280 vs 1,682 ly. Some feel USDA guess could be 35-50 mil bu too low. This could drop US 2021/22 soybean carryout below 100. USDA June 20 stocks and acreage report key to prices. USDA announced 336 mt US soybean sold to China 21/22, 120 mt sold to unknown. US weather suggest normal temps and rainfall est and south of C IA. West and north of C IL could see less than normal rains and normal to above temps. Key could be actual rains in SW MN and IA next week. Trade est US soybean rating near 60 pct G/E vs 62 last week.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. Lower than hoped weekly corn exports, fact weekly rains were better than expected, cooler temps this week and east Midwest rains next week offered resistance. Noon maps adding rains next week for Iowa also offered resistance. US weather suggest normal temps and rainfall east and south of C IA. West and north of C IL could see less than normal rains and normal to above temps. Key could be actual rains in SW MN and IA next week. Trade est US corn crop rating near 66 pct G/E vs 68 last week. Weekly US corn exports were near 58 mil bu vs 63 last week and 51 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,185 vs 1,263 ly. USDA goal is near 2,850 vs 1,778 ly. Some feel USDA guess could be 100-200 mil bu too low. This could drop US 2021/22 corn carryout below 1,000. USDA June 20 stocks and acreage report key to prices. CN open interest remains relatively high going into delivery. Extreme volatility and uncertain US summer weather keeps dropping open interest and limits both new buying and selling. Dalian corn futures continue to slip lower on increase imports and talk of less corn in hog feed rations. Brazil domestic corn prices continue to firm on lower supplies. Some feel Brazil may need to increase imports to satisfy demand. EU old crop corn supply continues to tighten. USDA est of June 1 stocks and 2021 acres could be key to prices. Numbers below average traded guess could send prices higher. Numbers above average traded guess could send prices lower.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded mixed. Slow World wheat trade and recent USDA World wheat numbers offers resistance. US advancing winter wheat harvest also weighs on prices. Continued talk of potentially lower US HRS, durum, PNW White, Canada wheat and Russia wheat crops offer support. WU is near 6.65. Range could be 6.40-6.80 until more is known about US corn crop and wheat demand. US 2021 SRW crop should be higher than last year but rains could lower quality. US HRW crop could also be higher than last year but protein could be below average. Higher US HRW and SRW crop could be offset by lower HRS and white crops. Weekly US wheat exports were near 20 mil bu vs 18 last week and 25 last year. Season to date exports are near 45 vs 54 ly. USDA goal is near 900 vs 985 ly. Some feel USDA demand guess could be 35-50 mil bu too low and 35-50 mil bu too high in crop est. This could drop US 2021/22 wheat carryout below 750. USDA June 20 stocks and acreage report key to prices.
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