ADMIS News
Crude Slips on OPEC+ Output
July 6, 2026
COCOA
September Cocoa was back into higher ground early Monday, trading to its highest level since January 13, after a mild setback last week. Too much wet weather in key producing areas of West Africa have raised concerns about disease, and the arrival of El Nino raised concerns about drought conditions emerging later this year. Fitch Solutions said last week it expects Ivory Coast to produce 1.7 million metric tons of cocoa in 2026/27, which would be down 17.5% from 2025/26. Fitch also warned that the high cost and limited availability of fertilizer and its reduced effectiveness when conditions are dry could discourage usage this year. In the meantime, cocoa production continue to recover.
COFFEE
September Coffee was higher early Monday and was approaching last week’s highs. The market has already seen a sharp rally off concerns about Brazil’s crop, which was expected to be very strong this year but has run into some problems with too much rain at harvest. Safras and Mercado said on Friday that Brazil’s coffee harvest for the 2026/27 season had reached 52% of the planted area as of July 1 down from 60% seen at this point last year and a five year average of for that date of 55%. This was up from 44% the previous week, thanks to a dry pattern that emerged to help advance the harvest. Arabica was 42% harvested versus 50% last year and a five-year average of 45%. Robusta was 72% harvested versus 77% a year ago and in line with the average. Colombia’s National Federation of Coffee Growers said on Friday that the nation produced 1.3 million bags of coffee in June, up from 909,000 bags a year prior and 1.05 million in May. This was the second straight month of growth after seven straight monthly declines. The 12-month total is 13.035 million bags versus 14.390 million at this point last year. The head of the federation credited reduced rainfall for this increase.
SUGAR
October sugar was higher Monday after probing lower early in the session. Extreme heat is expected to return to Europe this week, keeping concerns over the beet crop elevated. World Weather Inc. expects 90s to over 100 from Spain through France and a few immediate neighboring areas. Rainfall is not expected to surpass 0.75 inch over the next two weeks with many areas getting less than 0.50 inch, and crop moisture stress is predicted to get very high in parts as time advances. Drought and dryness are a continuing concern in southern India. The dry bias will continue for the next ten days to two weeks, including sugar production areas in southern Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
COTTON
December Cotton was higher early Monday and was in the vicinity of last week’s high. West Texas is still too dry, although conditions are improving in other parts of the US. The weekly US Drought Monitor showed an area representing approximately 56% of US cotton production was experiencing drought as of June 30 versus 58% the previous week and 3% a year ago. World Weather Inc. says West Texas rainfall will be restricted, although not absent during the next two weeks. In most cases they do not expect there to be enough rain to counter evaporation very well, leaving some concern about cotton production in unirrigated fields. Most other US production areas are seeing decent weather, with the recent rains helping the drier areas of the southeast.
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