Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.2026
May 20, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.07-$.09 lower while spreads also weakened. July-26 sliced through its 50-day MA with next support at LW’s low of $4.55. Support for Dec-26 is at $4.80. No date has been set for the US Senate to vote on E-15. Today’s EIA data showed ethanol production jumped to 327 mil. gallons LW, up from 318 mil. the previous week and up 7% YOY. There was 109 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.6 mil. bu. per day. This was below the pace needed to reach the USDA usage forecast of 5.60 bil. for a 5th consecutive week. In MY to date there has been 3.899 bil. bu. used, or 15.17 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.537 bil. Implied gasoline usage inched up to 8.77 tbd last week, up 1.4% YOY. Ethanol stocks held at 24.9 mil. barrels, in line with YA. Friday’s COF report is expected to show cattle inventories at 11.536 mil. head, up 1.4% from YA. Placements are expected to rise 3% with marketings down 9.5%. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 38-75 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with beans down $.09-$.12, meal was $1.50 lower while oil was off 55-80 points. Favorable weather, lower energy prices and speculative selling all combined to weigh on commodity valuations today. Although the standoff in the Persian Gulf continues there has been increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while Pres. Trump has suggested negotiations with Iran on a peace agreement are in the “final stages”. Overnight three supertankers carrying crude oil to China and S. Korea safely navigated through the narrow passageway. Crush margins were down $.02 at $3.49 ½ with bean oil PV slipping to 53%. Chinese customs data showed they imported 3.3 mmt of US soybeans in April, well above the 1.38 mmt from April-25. Their total imports for the month at 8.5 mmt were up 40% YOY however below expectations of 10 mmt. Spot US Gulf FOB offers are roughly $1 bu. above Brazil’s however down to only $.50 for September shipment. US soybean oil has effectively priced itself out of the global vegetable oil market, however at $.75 lb. remains profitable in the production of biofuels. S&P Global calculates the B/E for a Midwest biodiesel producer is at $.89 lb., while $.91 for a California RD producer. ABIOVE forecasts Brazil’s 25/26 production at 180.1 mmt, just above the USDA. They raised their export forecast to 114.1 mmt, vs. the USDA 115 mmt est. Their crush forecast at 62.5 mmt is just above the USDA’s 61.5 mmt est. tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 6-24 mil. bu. of soybeans, 200-550k tons of meal and -5-12k tons of bean oil.
WHEAT
Prices range from $.02 to $.07 lower across the 3 classes. CGO July-26 was down $.06 ¾ at $6.60 ½, KC July-26 was down $.05 at $6.99 while MIAX July-26 was $.02 lower at $6.94 ½. All 3 classes experiencing 2-sided trade overnight. Algeria’s reportedly bought 200k mt of milling wheat in their recent 50k mt tender for July-Aug shipment. Prices ranged from $285-$292/mt CF. It would appear US wheat is least likely to benefit from the Chinese trade agreement with US prices uncompetitive in the global marketplace.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
