Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 21.2026
July 21, 2026
CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 higher in choppy, 2-sided trade. Spreads were mixed. Sept-26 filled its chart gap from Sunday night while Dec-26 didn’t. Corn conditions slipped 1% to 67% G/E, vs. expectations for a 2% drop. Overall ratings remain slightly above the historical average. Ratings fell 10% in ND and CO while down 8% in SD. Ratings improved 5% in TX and 3% in NC and TN, and up 2% in IA, IL, NE and IN. 59% of the crop is silking vs. 53% YA and 5-year Ave. of 54%. 13% of the crop is in the dough stage, matching YA. IMO current ratings suggest an average US yield of 184.3 bpa with production at 16.107 bil., just above the USDA forecast of 16.0 bil. That said I lean toward lower ratings and yield expectations down the road given the concerning forecast for the WCB. Dr. Codonnier lowered his US yield forecast 1 bpa to 181 with a neutral to lower bias moving forward. AgRual reports Brazilian harvest has reached 49% as of late last week vs. 55% YA.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed today with soybeans $.03-$.08 lower, meal was up $2-$3 while oil prices have set back 70-80 points. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads firmed. Both Aug-26 and Nov-26 beans held within yesterday’s range. Next significant resistance for old crop is $12.58 ¼, the May-24 high on the weekly continuation chart. Aug-26 meal shot up to its highest level since late May-26 with next resistance at $334.10. Much of the N. Midwest and ECB will experience normal to below normal temperatures the next few days before temperatures rebound this weekend. A system is likely to bring scattered rains into the WCB mid-week however the overall weather picture remains a concern with week 2 of the outlook holding in a hot/dry pattern. Mostly favorable for the central and ECB. Crush margins rebounded $.09 to $3.16 ½ bu. while bean oil PV has pulled back to 53.2%. US Gulf FOB offers remain $.10-$.20 above Brazilian offers thru Sept-26 while slipping to a $.05 discount by Nov-26. Lack of any flash sales today is likely weighed on spot soybean prices. IMO continued demand interest from China (and others) coupled with an uncertain weather outlook in the WCB will likely keep the path of least resistance to the upside. Soybean ratings improved 1% to 66% G/E vs. expectations for a 1% decline. Overall ratings remain above the historical average. Ratings rose 13% in NC, and 5% in IA and MS, while falling 6% in AR and 5% in ND and SD. 66% of the crop is blooming, vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 60%. 32% of the crop is setting pods, above YA and 5-year Ave. of 24%. Current ratings would suggest an average yield of 53.9 bpa with production at 4.511 bil. vs. the USDA forecast of 4.475 bil.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.04-$.12 higher, closing near session highs in choppy 2-sided trade. CGO Sept-26 was up $.04 at $6.78, KC Sept-26 was $.09 ¼ higher at $7.33 while MIAX Sept was up $.11 ½ at $7.03 ¾ closing at a 7-week high. Supply disruptions from the Black Sea region coupled with expectations for lower production in the US/EU will likely keep the path of least resistance higher with volatility elevated. Winter wheat harvest advanced to 74%, vs. the 5-year Ave. of 71%. Spring wheat ratings fell 5% to 53% G/E vs. expectations for a 3% decline. Despite the decline, overall ratings remain just above their historical average. Crop ratings would suggest an average yield of 49.8 bpa and production at 452 mil. below the USDA July-26 forecast of 475 mil. The annual Wheat Quality Council’s annual spring wheat crop tour begins today in ND. SovEcon lowered their Russian production forecast .6 mmt to 88.3 mmt, very near the USDA est. of 88.5 mmt. Tunisia reportedly bought 100k mt of milling wheat in today’s tender at an average of just over $283/mt CF.
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