Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 21.2026
July 21, 2026
SOYBEANS
The escalating Black Sea conflict is lifting Ag markets this morning, and beans gapped up overnight with November moving to its highest level since January 2023. Choppy action dominated the bean trade last week, but the overnight gap suggests the market may be resuming the bull move that started in early July. Heat is expected to remain in place across the western belt over the next 2 weeks, and the 6 to 14-day forecast indicates mostly normal precipitation throughout the Midwest. However, the extreme heat means crop stress will worsen for those that don’t see moisture.
SOYBEAN MEAL
Soybean meal has started this week with a strong bid after beans gapped higher overnight on heat threats to the western US crop areas during the next 2 weeks. September meal is just under last week’s 1 ½ month high. For the month, meal open interest has been mostly flat with futures prices in a broad range of 300.00 to 330.00 since the start of this year, but nearing the upper boundary.
CORN
The latest weather forecast extended the heat in the western belt through the next 2 weeks, and along with additional major attacks between Ukraine and Russia over the weekend, corn formed a small gap higher overnight. Russia attacked a Ukrainian corn ship at the Odesa port, killing 10. The ongoing attacks are further slowing Ukraine’s exports.
WHEAT
A steady start this morning for wheat after very strong action last week and increasing attacks by Ukraine and Russia over the weekend. The attacks are slowing exports from the Black Sea, and SovEcon now expects July Russian exports at only 1.5 million tonnes, down from 2.2 million in June. Demand is beginning to shift to other EU countries, and Romanian and Bulgarian wheat prices are now at a one-year high.
CATTLE
Cattle traded lower again on Friday for the 15th straight session as cash prices fell sharply last week and futures quickly trended lower, keeping the bears in charge. Foreign beef imports into the US are also a factor for the recent price break, and New Zealand meat sales to the US jumped 60% during the second quarter. Some fast-food outlets are pivoting towards more chicken sales due to the high beef prices. Retail grocery beef prices have become so high that a California Walmart store is reportedly using anti-theft wire bags for its ribeye steaks and ground beef to combat shoplifters.
HOGS
The hog market extended its gains into the close on Friday, delivering a very strong performance for the week, with October hitting its highest price since May 21st. COT data showed Managed Money traders, as of last Tuesday’s close, had not liquidated nearly as much of the net short position as expected. The net short only dropped 1,436 contracts and remains above 30,000.
MILK CLASS III
August Class III milk finished last week with a sizable gain after reaching a 6 1/2-week high on Friday.
CRUDE OIL
September Crude Oil was higher early Tuesday but had yet to take out Monday’s high. The Houthis’s threat to impose a naval “blockade” on Saudi Arabia stands at odds with the suggestions by Iran on Monday that they would be open to reestablishing talks. A “blockade’ by the Houthis would be at the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which leads out of the southern Red Sea into the Gulf of Aden. If
NATURAL GAS
September Natural Gas was lower early Tuesday and threatening to take out Friday’s lows. As expected, Tropical Storm Bertha has formed over the northeastern Gulf and is expected to follow the Louisiana coast to the upper Texas.
DOLLAR INDEX
The USD index held steady overnight near 101.00 as traders weigh safe‑haven support from ten straight nights of US strikes on Iran and renewed threats to shipping against last week’s softer inflation data, which cut the implied probability of a September Fed hike to around 60% from nearly 90% pre‑CPI.
PRECIOUS METALS
August gold contracts moved higher, trading near the psychological $4,000 level as the dollar maintained its recent strength while US-Iran strikes reinforced a hawkish inflation backdrop. The upside in gold today is coming from new reports of mediation efforts to stop the fighting between the US and Iran.
September silver contracts are up 3% to $58.86.
Copper prices moved to one-month highs, supported by firm demand in China and declining inventories outside the US. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME gained 1.6% to $13,835; COMEX copper is up 2.7% to $6.51. In China, copper warehouse stocks are declining, import premiums have risen substantially, and physical demand has been resilient.
EQUITIES
Equity index futures are higher, led by tech and semis. The main semiconductor ETF (PHLX) is up around 4% pre-market, rising for the second straight session after the recent selloff. The PHLX ended last week more than 20% below its late‑June record high, formally marking a bear‑market decline, but it is still up roughly two‑thirds year‑to‑date, underlining how much room there is for swings within the AI theme.
INTEREST RATES
Yields are little changed across the curve. Tehran received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire although the decision by the Iran-aligned Houthis to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on Monday risked further escalating the conflict, keeping Brent crude just below $90 a barrel, a five-week high. Inflation expectations have steadily eased this month even as oil prices remained elevated, with one-year inflation swaps falling below the Fed’s 2% target for the first time since October 2024.
COCOA
September Cocoa was near unchanged early Tuesday, inside Monday’s range. Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind totaled 56,325 metric tons in June, up 22% from the same period last year according GEPEX. The total grind from the start of the 2025/26 season is 493,468 tons, up 3.7% from the same period last season. This as well as better than expected second-quarter grind numbers out of Asia and North America last week suggest demand is starting to recover.
COFFEE
September Coffee was higher for the third straight session early Tuesday. Old crop supplies remain tight, the Brazilian harvest is behind, and El Nino threatens to cause problems with the robusta crops in Asia and the 2027 arabica crops in Brazil. Safras & Mercado reported on Friday that 64% of Brazil’s planted area had been harvested as of July 15, up from 58% a week earlier but below the 77% at this time last year and behind the five-year average of 70%.
COTTON
December Cotton was higher early Tuesday but inside Monday’s range. Stock indices and crude oil were higher, which lends some support to cotton. The weekly Crop Progress report released Monday afternoon showed 45% of the US cotton crop was rated good/excellent as of July 19, up from 44% the previous week but down from 57% a year ago.
SUGAR
October Sugar was near unchanged early Tuesday and was confined to Monday’s range. Data from Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry on Monday showed center-south cane crushing totaled 31.15 million metric tons during the second half of June, down 28.4% from the same period last year.
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