Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 1 cent and near 13.03. SMH is near 387.0. BOH is near 49.58. CH is unch and near 4.73. WH is unch and near 6.12. KWH is unch and near 6.25. MWH is unch and near 7.14. Stocks are lower. Some tech signals suggest recent rally in stocks may be near a top. US Dollar is lower and lowest level since July,2023. Crude is higher and near $75. US PCI should show inflation down.
CH is near 4.73. Trade still worried about higher US Dec 1 stocks and USDA increase US 2023 corn crop in Jan. Trade awaiting Brazil rain amounts. Low water in Panama canal and increase Red Sea drone attacks has vessels rerouting. All this is increasing World freight rates which offers resistance to commodity prices. Dalian corn futures are higher. China still not buying US corn despite talk government wants to add to stocks. US export commit is near 1,109 mil bu vs 812 ly. USDA goal is 2,100 vs 1,661 ly. Weekly chart support 4.50. Resistance 5.00.
SH is near 13.03. SMH is below 390. Drop in soymeal values are pushing crush margins lower. BOH is back below 50 cents. Trade awaiting Brazil rain amount. Some est of Brazil crop is now near 155 but higher Argentina crop could offset lower Brazil. Dalian soybean futures were higher, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Soybeans like most commodities are trading lower and searching for new demand. US export commit is near 1,299 mil bu vs 1,555 ly. USDA Gola is 1,755 vs 1,992 ly. Soymeal 6.8 mst vs 5.8 ly. USDA goal is 13.9 vs 13.30 ly. Weekly chart support 12.50. Resistance 14.00.
Push pull wheat futures trade continues with overnight futures sharply unchanged. US south plains rains are forecasted for this week. Increase World wheat buying interesting read but origin is mostly cheaper Russian. Australia wheat futures are sharply lower on talk crop now est at 28 mmt vs USDA 25.5. and export demand has slowed on talk of lower protein. US wheat export commit is near 545 mil bu vs 539 ly. Srw 155 vs 88 and HRW 93 vs 145.HRS 173 vs 161 ly.
CBOT closed Sunday Night, Monday and Monday night. Reopens Tuesday morning at 8:30. Happy Holiday to all!
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