ADMIS News
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
COCOA
July Cocoa prices have backed off from their April highs, as weather and crop outlooks for west Africa have improved with the arrival of the rainy season. Ivory Coast Farmers told Reuters yesterday that above-average rains in cocoa growing regions last week will help the development of young pods and boost mid-crop production. Farmers also said mid-crop harvesting was picking up with more beans available for purchase. Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals were estimated at 31,000 metric tons last week, up from 25,000 the previous week and 25,000 a year ago. Cumulative arrivals for 2024/25 have reached 1.536 million tons versus 1.379 million at this point last year and a five-year average of 1.752 million. World Weather Service expects more showers and thunderstorms over the next 7-10 days, which they view as sufficient to support normal crop development. Daily rain intensity is expected to vary, mostly in the light to moderate range. ICE certified stocks increased by 8,115 bags yesterday to 2.084 million, the highest since October 1.
COFFEE
Expectations for a poor Brazilian crop this year helped drive July Coffee to new contract highs last week, but it is possible that the market has priced most of those expectations. The upcoming harvest may offer some pressure. Fieldwork already occurring in Brazil’s robusta areas, and the arabica harvest usually begins in May or June. Vietnam exported 167,000 metric tons of coffee in April, up 11.4% from a year ago. January-April exports totaled 663,000 tons, down 9.8% from last year. Export revenue rose by 52% to $3.8 billion. World Weather Service says not much rain fell in Brazil’s coffee areas over the weekend, and very little is expected over the next seven days. Indonesia, Vietnam, Central America and both west and east-central Africa coffee areas will get routine rains.
COTTON
July Cotton was slightly lower overnight but held most of its gains from Friday. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 21% of the US cotton crop was planted as of May 4, up from 15% the previous week but down from 23% a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 20%. The pace is close to the average, with Texas slightly ahead of normal and Delta states dragging behind. Texas was 25% planted, up from 23% a year ago and above the five-year average is 22%. Georgia was 13% planted versus 19% a year ago and 15% on average. Arkansas was 13% planted versus 28% a year ago and 19% on average. Mississippi was 18% planted versus 29% a year ago and 19% on average. Heavy rains across the south this week will improve soil moisture in Texas and but cause more delays to planting in the Delta. Cotton could see some pressure if the stock market, which has seen a significant rally off the post liberation-day lows, backs off on profit taking.
SUGAR
July Sugar was up for the third straight session overnight after bouncing off the 17.00 level on Friday. The market may have received support after crude oil bounced off its lows yesterday and rallied overnight. The market received some bearish news last week, with the UNICA report showing a stronger than expected start to the Brazilian crush for 2025/26 and an official government forecast from CONAB calling for a 4% increase in production this year, but this also may have culminated the selling for a time. The Brazilian sugar and ethanol producer Copersucar said they have reached a deal to sell and distribute ethanol produced at Green Plains plants in the US through its majority-held subsidiary Eco-Energy. Eco-Energy now holds some 15% of the US domestic ethanol market.
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