Weather Bulls vs. Export Demand Bears


Month end. Grains are mixed. SU is down 7 cents and near 13.78. SX is down 6 cents and near 13.71. SMU is near 357.9. BOU is near 65.32. CU is down 2 cents and near 5.55. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.53. WU is up 1 cent and near 7.06. KWU is up 1 cent and near 6.75. MWU is down 3 cents and near 9.14.

US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Risk off?

For the month wheat prices are up 26 in SRW, up 15 in HRW, up 65 in HRS; Corn down 35; Soybeans down 28 ; Soymeal down $21.40; Soyoil up 1.04.

There were no August soybean deliveries, 6 soymeal and 1 soyoil. Corn/soybean OI down, wheat up.  Strong resistance near 14.18 SX, 370 SMU, 67.78 BOU, 5.73 CZ, 7.18 WU, 6.80 KWU and 9.44 MWU.

Dalian soyoil futures lower. Canada RSO also lower on talk China to sell RSO from reserves. Another day of active China soymeal trade. Brazil soybean export supplies limited. China import needs?

Still talk of net drying next 10 days for US NW Midwest, north plains, Canada prairies and US PNW. US Midwest temps moderate early next week. After day 10, warmer and drier for most of August. Russia dry. Hot and dry weather will move from N Africa to Black Sea. Brazil and Argentina dry.

Strong debate between record US east corn and soybean yield vs lower west. US yield 177? USDA 179.5.

Corn futures mixed with weather bulls versus export demand bears. Analyst est US 21/22 SB carryout 120 vs 155, est corn carryout 970 vs 1,432 and est wheat 580 vs 665.

US annual spring wheat tour yield 29 vs ave yield near 44. High TW, protein. Few shriveled kernels. Canada wheat crop 21-22 mmt? exports 13 vs 27.5 ly? Russia wheat crop 77 mmt?

On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 7,000 soybeans; 5,000 soyoil; 1,000 soymeal and 6,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net even SRW Wheat; long 229,000 Corn; net long 99,000 Soybeans; net long 21,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 64,000 lota of soyoil.

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