Written Commentary
Light Trading on Midterms
November 3, 2026
CRUDE OIL
December Crude Oil was lower early Tuesday despite comments from Iranian officials that the end of the war was “far off” and reports that US had struck an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz. The US midterms elections today may be keeping traders to the sidelines. One official in the US military said strikes were limited and were defensive measures against Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against US assets. The market is still on alert in the wake of recent reports that the US President is considering a massive strike on Iran after the election. The market’s ability to sell off sharply on minimal hopes of peace after reaching new contract highs the previous session suggests some level of exhaustion for the bulls.
PRODUCTS
Weakness in the crude oil market carried over to the products early Tuesday, with RBOB and ULSD hovering near their lows from Monday.
NATURAL GAS
December Natural Gas was slightly higher early Tuesday, marking the second straight session it avoided trading to new contract lows. The 6-10 and 8-14 day maps continue to show above normal temperatures over most of the lower 48 US states. Some normal or even below normal temps come in from the southeast in the 6-10-day, which is a bit cooler than the previous forecast, but the general trend remains warm, especially in the north, where lack of heating demand is most keenly felt. The latest 30-day forecast shows above normal temps across the north, over the eastern one-third of the nation, and along the west coast, which is typically for El Nino winters.
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