USDA Raises Cotton Plantings Estimates

COTTON

December Cotton was sharply lower early Thursday as the market reacted negatively to Wednesday’s USDA supply/demand report for August. The market put in a three month high on Wednesday, about an hour before the report was released and then sold off immediately after it came out. In the report, USDA lowered its forecast for US production and ending stocks from its July estimates but not as much as expected. A decline in yield was almost offset by increases in planted and harvested area. World ending stocks were lower than expected.

COFFEE

December Coffee was near unchanged early Thursday, inside the range it established on Tuesday, in the wake of the earthquake in Colombia that interrupted operations at the key coffee port of Buenaventura. As of late Wednesday, officials at that port said they would gradually resume some operations in parts of the complex seen as safe. Some 60% to 70% of Colombian coffee exports are shipped through there. Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe said its farmers had harvested 74.6% of their 2026 crop as of August 7, up from 67.3% a week earlier, but down from 80.4% at this point last year. Harvest was delayed by heavy rains in June, but since then it has steadily advanced. The delayed harvest has exacerbated an already tight nearby supply situation.

COCOA

December Cocoa was higher early Thursday but as it continued its consolidation pattern since putting in an 8-month high in July. World Weather Inc. reported that rain increased in Ghana in many central and northern areas this week (Tuesday) while Ivory Coast was mostly dry. Conditions more suitable to rain normally shift southward in late August and September which should bring back some of the moisture that has been lacking recently.

SUGAR

October Sugar appeared to reject its one-year high on Wednesday as it sold off sharply from the high and closed lower on the day. At its peak the market had rallied 2.74 cents (19%) in a little more than two weeks, and it was ready for a correction. Recent dry weather in Brazil should be allowing harvest to advance after it was interrupted by heavy rains in Brazil, although Rabobank said the market is concerned that the lost days increased the risks that more sugarcane will be left unharvested. Sugar prices in India have soared, which has moved the government to restrict exports and to discourage cane crushing for ethanol.

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