ADMIS News
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
COTTON
May Cotton is pushing up against the 50-day moving average for the fourth time in four sessions and for the third time in six weeks. The Prospective Plantings report yesterday was bullish against expectations but was not a big surprise. Nor did it project a big change in the US supply/demand balance. The report showed US 2025 cotton planted area at 9.87 million acres, down from the USDA Outlook Forum estimate of 10.0 million from February and down from 11.2 million in 2024. Using the Outlook Forum forecasts for abandonment rate, yield, and usage, this would put 2025/26 production at 14.40 million bales, down from 14.60 million in February and close to the 14.41 million in 2024/25, and it would put ending stocks at 4.60 million bales versus 4.80 million in February and 4.90 million in 2024/25. The stocks/usage ratio would come in at 31.3% versus 38.6% in 2024/25 and a five-year average of 25.7% (range 19.8%-38.6%). President Trump has promised to unveil a massive tariff plan on Wednesday, which he has dubbed “Liberation Day,” but US cotton exports have already lost out to Brazil over the past few years, so the shock potential is limited. Funds are heavily short cotton, which leaves the market vulnerable to short covering.
COCOA
May Cocoa was slightly higher overnight and near the upper end of this tight trading range of the past week. Ivory Coast Farmers interviewed by Reuters seem more optimistic despite below average rains. They said moisture levels were “adequate” in most of growing regions and that they look forward to the rainy season that officially begins this month. World Weather Service expects an erratic pattern for west Africa over the next 10 days. They added that recent weeks have brought good rainfall to Ivory Coast and Ghana, but Nigeria and Cameroon could use more. The southeast corner of Ivory Coast saw some light rain over the last 24 hours; the rest of the region was dry. ICE certified cocoa stocks increased 37,304 bags yesterday to 1.834 million, which is the highest since October 23. First quarter grind data for Europe, Asia and North America are scheduled to be released on April 17.
COFFEE
May Coffee took out the March low overnight but swung back to higher on the day. The market was under pressure initially from suggestions that Brazil’s 2025 crop was not as bad as previously thought. This started with Brazil’s Coouxpe saying on Friday that it expects its output to come close to last year’s, and this was seconded yesterday by analyst stating they expect the Brazil’s total to come in close to last year. World Weather Service says Brazil coffee areas should continue to receive some periodic rainfall, but it will be lighter than usual and not as much as needed. ICE certified arabica stocks fell 1,100 bags yesterday to 770,476, the lowest since February 18.
SUGAR
May Sugar is higher this morning but inside yesterday’s wide range. The market did not quite know how to react to a report from the India Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association that Indian mills had produced 24.8 million metric tons of sugar for the year as of March 31. In mid-March the group had lowered its total production forecast for 2024/25 to 26.4 million tons from 27.2 million previously. Yesterday’s cumulative number was not inconsistent with the forecast. The main harvest season is drawing to a close, but some areas still have mills open, and there is a chance for more late-season production in July-September. Brazil’s production for 2025/26 is just getting underway.
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