MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 3 cents and near 13.57. SMZ is near 398.7. BOZ is near 61.80. CZ is unch and near 4.80. WZ is up 2 cents and near 5.95. KWZ is unch and near 7.36. MWZ is unch and near 7.83. US stocks are higher. Higher US consumer spending is offering support. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher and near $91. Gold, silver, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Copper is lower.
Soybean futures are slightly lower. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. N/C Brazil and W Argentina are dry. S Brazil and NE Argentina are wet. Brazil and Argentina dryness could switch corn acres to beans. US August NOPA crush est at 168.0 mil bu vs 165.0 ly. SBO stocks 1.483 mil lbs vs 1,564 last month and 1,525 ly. US soybean export commit is down 34 pct vs ly. Some feel USDA may be underestimating demand for US soyoil for biofuel.
Corn futures remain near key support. Dalian corn futures are higher. CZ appears unable to trade over 5.00 due to high US carryout and harvest pressure while may not be able to trade below 4.70 due to competitor exporters logistic problems. There are unconfirmed rumors that China is buying Ukraine corn. New vessels have not been named yet but insurance is available. US corn export commits down 9 pct vs ly. Overnight Russia launched 22 drones on Ukraine. 17 were shot down. Trade watching US corn harvest yields and farmer selling pattern. Some still look for a post harvest rally on tightening pipeline supplies.
Wheat futures are mixed. Increase Black Sea tension offers support. Dry Australia weather continues. Consumers has good OND coverage but remain uncovered for 2024. Key is will they buy the carry or wait. Appears Russia will continue to average record monthly wheat exports near 5.0 mmt. US wheat export commit is down 19 pct vs ly.
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