Texas Rain Pressures Cotton

COTTON

July Cotton broke below two day support overnight to resume its selloff from contract highs. Much needed rainfall appears to be arriving in west Texas at last. The overnight maps showed with most areas in the region receiving at least ¼ inch of rain over the last 24 hours, with many areas seeing  1/2 to 1 inch.  The weekly Crop Progress report yesterday showed plantings were running at an average pace, with 53% of the US cotton crop planted as of May 24, up from 41% the previous week and 50% a year ago. It was right on the five-year average for this date at 53%. Texas was a little behind at 42% planted versus a five-year average of 45%. Likewise with Georgia, which was 58% planted, up from 38% last week but still below the five-year average at 60%. Arkansas was 77% planted versus a five-year average of 78%, and Mississippi was 73% planted versus a five-year average of  69%. Crude oil prices appear to be on the defensive this morning, which does not help cotton.

COCOA

July Cocoa extended Tuesday’s sharp rally early Wednesday and came close to a 0.618 retracement of the selloff from the May 11 high to Friday’s low. Ivory Coast port arrivals appear to be picking up, with arrivals for the week ending May 24 at 34,000 metric tons, up from 33,000 the previous week and 20,000 a year ago. This may mean greater availability, but it also may mean the backlog from main crop harvest is being cleared. The five-year average for the week 29,000 tons. Cumulative arrivals for the 2025/26 marketing year have reached 1.637 million tons, up from 1.602 million a year ago but still below the five-year average of 1.808 million. World Weather Inc. expects showers and thunderstorms across west-central Africa during the next week to ten days. Sufficient rain is expected to maintain good cocoa development potentials. The coverage and intensity of rain may slacken a bit during the weekend and early next week, but crop conditions will remain quite favorable.

COFFEE

July Coffee turned lower early Wednesday after reaching its highest level since May 15 earlier in the session.  A report last Friday from Safras & Mercado that the Brazilian harvest was running behind the average pace due to too much moisture lent helped the market bounce on Tuesday and helped extend those gains overnight, but with the arabica harvest 7% harvested versus and average of 9% for this point in the season, it may be too early for judgement. A strong crop is expected. World Weather Inc. says no threatening cold temperatures are expected in Brazil production areas for another week and possibly ten days. A few showers will pop up daily in days in some areas, but in relatively small amounts, with some exceptions that could cause delays. No widespread general soaking of rain is predicted, and crop maturation, harvesting and the drying of picked beans will advance around any showers that occur.

SUGAR

July Sugar extended its recent selloff overnight and in the process broke below a consolidation range established this month. Recent data from Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry showed center-south cane crush for the second half of April totaled 39.4 million tons, which was above an average expectation from an S&P Global poll of analysts at 36.3 million. Sugar production was 1.76 million tons for the period versus 1.48 million tons expected. UNICA will release update later today. Dry conditions in April were viewed as ideal for harvest and crushing, was expected to pull sugar production ahead of a year ago despite a greater emphasis on crushing for ethanol.

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