Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 5 cents and near 13.26. SMZ is near 355.4. BOZ is near 60.40. CZ is down 4 cents and near 5.41. WZ is down 8 cents and near 7.24. KWZ is down 5 cents and near 7.12. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 9.10.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is lower. Financial and currencies waiting for US Central Bank policy comments. Stall in Crude rally may be weighing on grains.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 121 yuan ; Soymeal up 21; Soyoil up 140; Palm oil up 134; Corn up 3 . China announced new policy to stop inflation. This also reducing speculation trading. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 47 ringgit (+1.09%) at 4350.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 27 in HRW, up 20 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 24 1/4; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil down 2.59.
Spot basis bids for corn fell at processors around the U.S. Midwest on Tuesday with plants stocked with enough supplies to last until harvest. Spot basis bids for soybeans also fell at processors. Midwest. Weekly US ethanol production could be below last week, stocks slightly higher. US weekly corn and wheat export sales could remain slow. More soybean sales to China.
Overnight rains were in MN, NE IA, WI, N IL, WI N IN and MI. Midwest forecasts: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal. La Nina could keep South America drier than normal.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 17,000 soybeans; 56000 soyoil, 5,000 soymeal and 9,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 12,000 SRW Wheat; long 266,000 Corn; net long 89,000 Soybeans; net long 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 66,000 lots of soyoil.
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