Written Commentary
Ag Market View for September 16.24
September 16, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Could be some short covering in front of next weeks weather unknown and USDA report. SU is up 8 cents and near 13.06. SX is up 7 cents and near 12.98. SMU is near 346.6. BOU is near 61.96. CN is near 6.57. CU is up 2 cents and near 5.52.. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.38. WU is up 3 cents and near 6.55. KWU is up 6 cents and near 6.21. MWU is up 15 cents and near 8.20.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. US hog numbers down 2 pct. Futures should be higher. July grain and oilseed options expire today.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 9 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, up 52 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 27 3/4; Soybeans down 15; Soymeal down $2.81; Soyoil up 5.03.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 10 3/4 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, up 85 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/2; Soybeans down 74 3/4; Soymeal down $42.50; Soyoil up 2.27.
Rains in MO and IL today. Next weeks US Midwest 2 week weather key. NW /N plains hot/dry next week. Many position trades are unwilling to take new positions into USDSA report. Funds short corn.
China Dalian corn, soybean, soymeal, palmoil prices were lower. Malaysian palmoil higher. US fob soybean prices near $531 vs Argentina $502. Argentina soymeal $376 vs US $390. Argentina soybean crop 46.5 mmt. BAGE 43.5. Lower Argentina soymeal prices negative to futures. There was talk China has now bought 1.5 mmt US new crop soybean. Still need Aug-Sep.
US fob corn prices near $288 vs Ukraine $280, Argentina $225. US HRW fob wheat $279 vs Russia $252. Argentina corn harvest 48 pct vs 79 ly. Crop 48.0 mmt vs USDA 47.0. Lower water levels slowing exports. Brazil farmer selling slow. Domestic corn prices higher vs export. Could reduce exports.
Trade est US June 1 soybean stocks near 773 mil bu vs 1,381 ly. US soybean acres near 89.1 vs 83.1 ly. Trade est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,130 mil bu vs 5,003 ly. US corn acres near 93.8 vs 90.8 ly. USDA est of US 2021 corn yield at record and 3 bpa above trend in question. Lower US 21/22 supply? Trade est US June 1 wheat stocks near 861 mil bu vs 1,028 ly. US all wheat acres near 46.0 vs 44.3 LY. Trade est 2021 US cotton acres near 11.8 vs 12.0 March. Rice 2.6 vs 2.7. Sorghum 7.1 vs 6.9
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 SRW Wheat; 2,000 corn; 6,000 soybeans; 6,000 soymeal and bought 3,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds to be net short 13,000 SRW wheat; long 235,000 corn, 96,000 soybeans, long 6,000 soymeal and long 81,000 soyoil.
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