Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 11.24
December 11, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Risk off. SU is down 11 cents and near 13.44. SX is down 12 cents and near 13.39. SMU is near 351.0. BOU is near 64.09. CU is down 2 cents and near 5.44. CZ is down 3 cents and near 5.39. WU is down 1 cent and near 6.72. KWU is down 8 cents and near 6.37. MWU is down 12 cents and near 8.71.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. China tightening grip on property, education and food delivery monopoly reform and hard rhetoric against US before planned talks is weighing on equity and commodity markets.
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng said during talks Monday with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman that the two countries’ relationship “is now in a stalemate and faces serious difficulties,” according to an English-language press release from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs
US Midwest was warm and dry. Weekend rains in NE SD, NW WI, SE IL, MI and OH. Canada/Russia dry.
Most look for this weeks US corn and soybean ratings to drop 1-2 pct from last week. EU forecast through Aug 4 has rains for SD, SW MIN, NW IA and WC IL. Normal temps east Midwest.
Soybean futures below 20/100 day moving average and below 38 pct retracement of June high to low. Corn futures traded below 20 day, 50 day and 100 day price supports. Resistance near 5.73. Chicago Sep wheat range 6.70-7.00; KC Sep 6.30-6.70, Minn Sep range 8.70-9.40.
Momentum is lower. Strong negative price seasonal. Reduce volume into month end, USDA Aug report.
Analyst est US 20/21 soybean carryout near 150 vs USDA 135, 21/22 120 vs USDA 155
Analyst est US 20/21 corn carryout near 1,015 vs USDA 1,082, 21/22 970 vs USDA 1,432
Analyst est US 21/22 wheat carryout 580 vs USDA 665. Russia crop 80 mmt vs USDA 85. Canada 21
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 10,000 corn; 8,000 soybeans; 6,000 soymeal and bought 4,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 8,000 SRW Wheat; long 221,000 Corn; net long 80,000 Soybeans; net long 19,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 57,000 Soyoil.
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