Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are mixed. SX is down 4 cents and near 12.24. SMZ is near 316.4. BOZ is near 60.14. CZ is unch and near 5.32. WZ is up 2 cents and near 7.34. KWZ is up 1 cent and near 7.35. MWZ is up 3 cents and near 9.49. OZ is near 6.80.
US stocks and US Dollar are marginally lower. Crude is higher.
Dalian corn, palmoil, soyoil and soymeal are lower. Rapeseed oil and corn higher. Hog futures are higher. There is talk that due to energy crisis, China may unload Australia coal boats at ports for 4 months. China may have bought 8-12 US/Brazil soybean cargoes. Some est imports below 100 mmt. Lower soybean imports could be due to lower sow numbers and available electricity for crushers.
Crude rallied from a low near 74.96 on Thursday to a high today near 80.91 on supply worries .
SX dropped from a high on June 7 near 14.80 to a low overnight of 12.23. Year ago 8.86. Today, USDA is expected to raise US 2021/22 soybean carryout from 185 to 300. Brazil 2022 crop ok. Soymeal futures have dopped from a high on May 12 near 428 to last weeks low of 316 on low demand. Brazil has exports 385 mt of soymeal in Oct. Higher than Sep. 800 mmt in line up to load. Soyoil futures was near 54.18 on Sep 10 on demand worries, now 60.14. USDA higher soyoil supply?
Corn futures rallied from 4.97 on Sep 10 to 5.48 on Sep 30. Now near 5.32. Year ago 3.77.
WZ went from 6.18 on July 9 to 7.74 Aug 13 to now 7.34. USDA report should be friendly. KWZ went from 5.90 on July 7 to 7.69 Aug 13. Now 7.35. La Nina 2022 weather could support KC wheat. MWZ went from a low on April 1 near 6.25 to Friday high near 9.49 on lower World milling wheat supply. USDA could lower US and Canada wheat crop today. EU exports higher? Russia numbers a coin toss.
Today, USDA is expected to estimate US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,432, wheat 576.
More US north plains and east Midwest showers. Ukraine/Russia dry. Argentina dry. Brazil rains.
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