Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are mixed to higher. SN is up 9 cents and near 15.72. SX is up 8 cents and near 14.57. SMN is near 387.3. BON is near 72.14. CN is up 5 cents and near 6.96. CZ is up 3 cents and near 6.13. WN is down 6 cents and near 6.75. KWN is down 2 cents and near 6.33. MWN is unch and near 7.64.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is marginally higher. Crude is mixed. China Dalian SB, SBM, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Corn was higher. Metals are lower on talk China could soon release stocks from reserves. China still talking about curbing high commodity prices.
USDA is expected to estimate US 2021 wheat crop near 1,892 mil bu versus 1,872 est in May.
Trade est US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,207 vs 1,257 in May. 21/22 1,423 vs 1,507.
USDA est US 2021/22 corn exports at 2,450 vs 20/21 2,775. Both could be 300 mil bu higher.
Trade est US 2020/21 soybean carryout at 122 vs 120 in May. 21/22 146 vs 140.
Trade est US 2020/21 wheat carryout at 869 vs 872 in May. 21/22 783 vs 774
Trade est World 2020/21 corn carryout at 280.8 mmt vs 283.5 in May. 21/22 289.2 vs 292.3
Trade est Brazil corn crop near 97.3 mmt vs 102.0 in May. Argentina 47.0 vs 47.0
Trade est World 2020/21 soybean carryout at 87.1 vs 86.5 in May. 21/22 91.2 vs 91.1
Trade est Brazil soybean crop near 136.1 mmt vs 136.0 in May. Argentina 46.6 vs 47.0
Trade est World 2020/21 wheat carryout at 294.4 vs 294.6 in May. 21/22 294.4 vs 294.9
USDA estimates China 21/22 soybean imports at 103 mmt vs 100 ty. Corn 26 vs 26. USDA estimates Russia wheat crop near 85.0 mmt vs 85.3 ly. Ukraine corn 37.5 vs 30.3 ly. USDA estimates World 21/22 soybean crush 331 mmt vs 322 ty. China 100 vs 96 ty. US 60 vs 59. USDA est World 21/22 soybean trade near 173 vs 171, corn 197 vs 186, wheat 202 vs 199.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 9,000 corn; sold 11,000 soybeans; 3,000 soyoil and 3,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money to be net short 5,000 SRW Wheat; net long 309,000 Corn; long 166,000 Soybeans; long 11,000 Soymeal, and; net long 109,000 Soyoil.
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