Written Commentary
Earnings, Fed, Data
July 30, 2026
NATURAL GAS
September Natural Gas was lower early Thursday but above Wednesday’s five-year low, as the market awaited the weekly EIA storage report later today. The Reuters poll has an average expectation calling for US natural gas storage to be +35 billion cubic feet for the week ending July 24 (range +24 to +42). The five year average change for the week is +27 bcf. As of last week’s report, storage was -0.6% from a year ago and +6.2% above the five-year average. LSEG data indicated that there were 96 total degree days last week, near the 30-year normal of 90 for the period, data from financial firm LSEG showed. LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states is running at the record 110.6 billion cubic feet per day that was previously reached in December. This is up from 110.0 bcfd in June. It appears that US supply is adequate to meet seasonal cooling demand in the face of more hot weather ahead. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast call for above normal temperatures across almost the entire lower 48 states. US LNG exports appear to have hit a standstill. Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants are running around 17.2 bcfd so far in July, down from 17.4 bcfd in June and the record 18.8 bcfd in April. Maintenance at LNG plants is being blamed for the slowdown. A QatarEnergy-controlled LNG tanker has exited the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since July 11. Iran says the vessel passed through a route they had designated. QatarEnergy has reportedly bought 33 spot LNG cargoes this year from the US for delivery to South Korea, Taiwan, Bangladesh, India and Japan.
CRUDE OIL
September Crude Oil edged higher early Thursday but was lower on the day as the session progressed, though it was holding inside the upper end of Wednesday’s range as this report was written. The US military said it hit dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran overnight, including military command centers and drone facilities after Iran fired ballistic missiles at US forces. The Egyptian cabinet has confirmed that the fire that engulfed two LNG vessels at Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta was from a drone attack and not an accident. No party has claimed responsibility. A US-owned gas storage tanker at the port was hit. Saudi Arabia is reportedly trying to build an international coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea from Houthi attacks. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said on Thursday that it had suspended oil loadings following a drone attack on a tanker. EIA stocks on Wednesday were bullish against expectations for crude oil, which compounded the bullish action off the renewed hostilities between the US and Iran. US crude oil stocks are the lowest since September 2018.
PRODUCTS
Product prices were lower early Thursday but inside Wednesday ranges. Wednesday’s EIA report showed US gasoline stocks were +7,000 barrels last week versus -700,000 expected and distillate stocks were +1.1 million barrels vs +200,000 expected. This US supplies remain at or near their lowest levels in six years for this point in the season. Global product supplies remain tight due to the Iran war and the restrictions on Russian exports. September RBOB’s failure to close the gap from Monday’s lower open is a negative, short-term technical development.
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