Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 19.24
April 19, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Happy Thanksgiving. Grains are mixed. SF is up 2 cents and near 12.75. SMZ is near 362.8. BOZ is near 60.51. CZ is unch and near 5.80. WZ is unch and near 8.55. KWZ is up 2 cents and near 8.81. MWZ is unch and near 10.38.
US stocks are lower., US GDP, consumer spending and Fed minutes today. US Dollar is higher, Crude is unch,
US Midwest dry. EU showers. Russia snow. Australia wet. Argentina showers. Brazil weather favorable. Weekly US exports sales delayed until Friday. Bean bulls worried about slow China soybean buying. Dalian soybean, corn, palmoil, soyoil lower. Soymeal higher. China and US relations declining.
World wheat buyers short, buying only hand to mouth. No 2022 coverage. KC futures could test 9.00. Matif wheat futures new highs. Russia domestic wheat prices higher. Large carry from Dec to March. Trade estimate of US 2021/22 wheat carryout from 570-640 depending upon final exports.
Corn futures may be in a 5.40-6.00 range. CZ22 new highs. Funds buying. Worries about US 2022 supply. Matif corn new highs. EU imports down 58 pct yoy. Only 2.6 mmt vs 6.3 ly. Stocks declining. Brazil corn exports remain active. Brazil domestic corn prices higher. US ethanol data supportive. Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,390 mil bu vs USDA 1,493 due to higher demand.
SF found resistance near 13.00. 12.50 is key support. Soybean supported by positive US crush margins. China soybean coverage now through December. Brazil could have new crop soybean in Jan for export. Argentina threatening meat, corn and wheat export tax. Brazil soybean prices lower. Slow China buying. Brazil soymeal prices $50 discount to US. Could slow US soymeal export demand. Matif rapeseed futures lower. More EU 2022 acres. Canada canola futures higher. Tight 2021 supply.
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