Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Month end. Grains are mixed. SX is up 2 cents and near 13.05. SMZ is near 349.2. BOZ is near 59.31. CZ is down 1 cent near 5.42. WZ is down 2 cents and near 7.21. KWZ is down 1 cent1 and near 7.11. MWZ is down 4 cents and near 9.05.
US stocks are mixed to higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower.
There were zero corn, soybean, soymeal Sep deliveries, 1,000 wheat, 47 oats, and 236 soyoil. Trade still accessing US gulf capacity damage due to IDA. Could be only one elevator effected.
US corn, soybeans, soymeal and wheat futures all need more demand to push futures higher. US rains forecasted for north plains and NE and IA. 8-14 weather dry. Warm west, cool east.
Dalian soybean, corn, palmoil and soyoil futures are lower. Nearby soymeal higher but deferreds lower. China August nonmanufacturing pct was down to 47.5 pct versus 53.3 last month. Matif wheat and corn futures held steady despite lower US futures. Argentina corn exports increasing before river levels get too low to load.
USDA Rated US corn crop 60 pct G/E vs 60 last week and 62 last year. Soybeans 56 vs 56 lw and 63 ly. Corn ratings were up in IL, MN and WI but dropped in IN, MI,OH and SD. 9 pct crop mature vs 10 ave. Soybean ratings were up in IL, LA and TN but dropped in AR, IN, IA, MO and OH.
Brazil 2022 soybean planting season starts in 2 week. 7 day weather dry. Raina possible in 2nd week.
Canada wheat crop 22.9 mmt vs 35.2 ly. Exports could be only 15 mmt vs 22.5 last year
SX still in wedge formation, support 12.78. Resistance 13.62. CZ support 5.33. Resistance 5.63 then 5.83. WZ dropped below support at 7.18. Range now 7.00 to 7.50. KWZ 7.00-7.50. US SRW fob 308 French 303.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 11,000 soybeans; 3,000 soymeal; 4,000 soyoil; and 16,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 6,000 SRW Wheat; long 257,000 Corn; net long 69,000 Soybeans; net long 15,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 64,000 lots of soyoil.
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