Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Jan 14.25
January 14, 2025
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is unch and near 12.77. SMZ is near 342.9. BOZ is near 58.05. CZ is down 4 cents near 5.18. WZ is down 3 cents and near 7.101 KWZ is down 3 cents and near 7.02. MWZ is down 6 cents and near 8.92. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is mixed to higher.
The continued main focus of grain futures is the damage to US gulf export capacity infrastructure. There remains no set time when electricity will be restored to US gulf export terminals. Commercial shorts slowly adding coverage on scale down pricing. Waiting for gulf assessment.
Black Sea weather forecast suggest increase chance for showers. EU is dry. Brazil is dry. Argentina rains. Brazil corn export pace closer to 17-18 mmt vs USDA 23. Brazil 22 corn crop est at 118 mt, up 35 vs ly. Matif corn lower. Black Sea corn futures lower. US fob corn near $253, Argentina $227. Ukraine $259
US July soybean crush is est near 165 mil bu vs 162 in June and 184 last year. US soybean fob prices near $513 vs Brazil $537. US soymeal fob $408 vs Argentina $387. US SRW fob $304, HRW $335, Baltic $302, Germany $305, Russia $305, French $298
Dalian soybean, soymeal and corn futures are trading higher. Palmoil and soyoil lower.
SX has dropped from $13.35 to 12.71 due to Hurricane impact at Gulf. CZ down from $5.58 to 5.16. BOZ also dropped from 61.55 to 57.21 linked in part to lower palmoil prices and lower Asia demand. WZ dropped from $7.45 to 7.05 on concern about demand and lower corn and soybean prices.
Weekly soybean export sales are est 725 mt to 1,400, corn 850-1,600 and wheat 200-450.
US Midwest rains are forecasted for central US and US east coast. 8-14 day dry, warm west cool east.
Farm futures est US 2022 corn acres at 94.3 up 2 pct, soybeans 90.8 up 4 pct, all wheat 49.7 up 6 pct.
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