Lower Trend in Grains Continues



Grains are lower. SH is down 3 cents and near 12.19. SMH is near 356.1. BOH is near 46.51. CH is down 3 cents and near 4.48. WH is down 7 cents and near 6.05. KWH is down 3 cents and near 6.33. MWH is down 4 cents and near 7.05. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. US 4th quarter GDP was higher than expected. Still, nominal GDP was up only 1 pct vs 3rd quarter. US debt grew to a record $34 trillion. US debt exceeded GDP for first time since 2012.



There are three key factors in price discovery. First – is Managed fund short.

Second is demand. Weekly US corn export sales were 37 mil bu. Total commit is 1,278 mil bu vs 946 ly. Some could see final exports 100 lower. US China Ag Attache dropped  China imports 3 mmt to 20 mmt due to lower feed demand. Weekly US soybean export sales were 20 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,394 mil bu vs 1,707 last year. Some could see final exports 25-30 mil bu lower. China US soybean exports are near 16.3 mmt with total commit near 20.7. There is 4.3 mmt in unknown. There was some talk of China switching sales from US to SA. Weekly US wheat export sales were 16 mil bu. Total commit is near 608 mil bu vs 589 last year. Some could see final export 20-30 mil bu higher. Russia exports to date are behind pace to reach USDA goal. SA weather is improving. US and Canada weather is dry with temps warming. EU and Black Sea weather is mostly favorable.

Third is supply. Argentina raised corn crop to 56.5 mmt and soybean to 52.5. USDA estimates World soybean crop at 399 mmt vs 375 last year. SA is up 23 mmt. USDA estimates World corn crop at 1,235 mmt vs 1,155 last year. US is up 43 mmt. China crop is estimated at a record 288 mmt, USDA estimates World wheat crop at 785 mmt vs 789 last year. Russia is unch at 91 mmt. China is unch at 137 mmt. EU is unch at 134. mmt. India is 110 mmt vs 104 ly. US is 49 mm vs 44 ly.


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