Lower Trade As Spec Driven Price Surge Quickly Faded

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Lower trade across the Ag space this AM as Monday’s speculative driven price surge has quickly faded.  Chinese Pres. Xi is expected to arrive in Washington DC at 3 pm EST where he will be greeted by Pres. Trump.  Markets bulls remain hopeful a trade deal will result in a reduction in tariffs allowing China’s purchase of US corn and soybeans in addition to the 25 mmt of soybeans.  Energy prices have turned higher in volatile 2-sided trade.  US and Iranian officials met for 3 hours yesterday at the UN General Assembly gathering in New York in what Pres. Trump described as a “very good meeting.”  Earlier in his address to the UN, the Pres. stated he had a big decision to make over whether to reach a peace deal or “annihilate” the country.  Nov-26 WTI crude oil is up $.15 per barrel at $90.65 while RBOB is up $.07 per gallon with HO steady.  The Russia/Ukraine war continues to rage on.  Light, patchy showers across the Midwest yesterday, however the majority of the growing areas were dry.  Dry conditions are expected to hold across the central Midwest into early next week with moderate to heavy rains expected to build across the central plains and WCB.  Week 2 of the outlook has above normal precipitation across the nation’s midsection.  In South American rains this week will favor the interior south of Brazil and N. Argentina.  Only scattered rains are expected for Mato Grosso and MGDS with temperatures above normal.  Hot is W. Europe with scattered rains expected in France.  Cooler in E. Europe with scattered rain.  The US $$ is moderately higher stretching out to a 2-month high.  US stock indices are mixed and little changed.

Corn: 

Dec-26 futures are down $.06 ¼ at $5.30 ½.  Prices continue to hold within the range from Fri. Sept. 11^th,  USDA report day.  First support is at $5.23 ¼.  EIA data is expected to show ethanol production slipped to 311 mil. gallons last week, down from 323 mil. the previous week however still above 301 mil. this week YA.  US Gulf FOB offers have spiked vs. SA prices, perhaps an attempt to shift non-Chinese buyers to Brazil or Argentina in the event China starts buying up US grain.  If China were to purchase US corn it would be purely for political reasons as Dalian prices have fallen to only a $70 per ton premium to US Gulf prices, matching the low from 2025 and the lowest since the spring of 2022.  Coceral is forecasting combined EU and UK corn production at only 48.6 mmt, down 14% YOY.  The BAGE see’s Argentina’s 2026/27 production at 66 mmt, above this past years record production of 64 mmt.

Soybeans: 

Nov-26 beans are down $.08 ½ at $13.17.  Oct-26 meal is $.50 lower at $368.40 while Oct-26 oil is down 31 points at 67.06.  Crush margins rebounded $.03 ½ to $2.40 ½ bu.  Sinograin announced plans for another auction of 514k tons is soybean reserves from Govt. stocks next Monday.  Brazil is expected to ship 8 mmt of soybeans in Sept-26, down from earlier forecasts of 8.3 mmt, however would still be a record high for the month.  AgRural reported Brazil’s 2026/27 crop is just over 1% planted.  The BAGE is forecasting Argentina production in 2026/27 at 53.6 mmt, up from 50.1 in 2025/26.  I’d estimate Chinese purchases are approaching 14 mmt.

Wheat: 

Prices range from $.04 to $.09 lower.  CGO Dec-26 is down $.07 ½ at $7.10, KC Dec-26 is $.08 ¾ lower at $7.72 ½ while Dec-26 MIAX is $.04 ½ lower at $7.32.  All 3 classes having challenged their respective 50-day MA support.  Russian and Ukrainian forces continue military strikes on port infrastructure and cargo vessels.  Overnight Russia’s Defense Ministry claim to have struck 2 logistic centers in Odesa while also striking a dry cargo vessel.  Ukraine’s Ag. Minister reports their wheat harvest is complete with 25.3 mmt gathered, up 11% YOY.  They also report 26/27 plantings have reached 14.6%.  Coceral is forecasting combined EU and UK wheat production at 137.5 mmt, down 7.5% YOY.  The BAGE is forecasting Argentina production in 2026/27 at 23.4 mmt, down from 27.8 mmt in 25/26.  The lowest offer for Tunisia’s 125k mt wheat tender was $311.72/mt CF.  No sales have been reported.

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