Lack of Positive News Has Grains Lower


Grains are lower. USDA report tomorrow. SX is down 7 cents and near 12.72. SMZ is near 337.2. BOZ is near 57.20. CZ is down 4 cents and near 5.06. WZ is down 10 cents and near 6.99. KWZ is down 9 cents and near 6.95. MWZ is down 10 cents and near 8.84. US stocks are lower.

US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. There is new concern that virus spread could slow US/World economy. Trade also watching Fed policy with new inflations worries. Even Bitcoin is lower.

Lack of any new positive news on US gulf logistics offers resistance into USDA Sep report.

Dalian corn is making new lows. Soymeal, soyoil futures are lower. Soybeans, palmoil, rapeoil higher.  SX is trading lower and 10 week lows, CZ lower and 5 month lows. Matif rapeseed new contract highs. Canada canola crop only 16.5 mmt, exports 5 mmt vs 10 ly. Canada 60 pct of World total trade.

Dry US 2 week Midwest weather forecast should speed up maturation and harvest. Top in yields.  Brazil dry for corn planting. Argentina fob corn prices higher slowing new export sales.

FSA released their 2021 crop enrollment acres early. All higher than August. Could suggest higher acres.

Balkan and Ukraine corn trying to replace some US corn export demand. US PNW SB basis +250. Egypt paid 6 year highs for wheat. Canada wheat crop 22.9 vs USDA 24.0, Ag Canada 20.8.  EU milling quality wheat only 9 mmt of 36 mmt crop. Most doubt USDA will lower EU/Russia exports.

Average trade guess for US corn yield is 175.8 vs USDA 174.6. Crop 14,942 vs USDA 14,750. Average trade guess for US soybean yield is 50.5 vs USDA 50.0 Crop 4,377 vs USDA 4,339.

Trade est US 20/21 corn carryout near 1,169 vs USDA 1,117. 21/22 carryout 1,382 vs 1,242. Trade est US 20/21 soybean carryout near 166 vs USDA 160. 21/22 carryout 190 vs 155. Trade est World 21/22 corn stocks at 286 mt vs 284, soybean 97 vs 96, wheat 279 vs 279.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now