Ivory Coast Arrivals Level Off

COCOA

December Cocoa was higher early Monday, perhaps because Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals were down from year ago levels for the fourth straight week. Cumulative arrivals for the market year remain strong, however. The possibility of lower global production in 2026/27 due to El Nino remains on traders’ minds, and Ivory Coast grind data is strong as well. Ivory Coast arrivals are estimated at 4,000 metric tons for the week ending August 16, steady with the previous week and down from 10,000 a year ago. Cumulative arrivals since the 2025/26 marketing year began in October have reached 1.996 million tons, up from 1.653 million at this time last year and the highest since 2022/23. The five-year average is 1.963 million. Ivory Coast exporters association GEPEX reported the nation’s cocoa grind totaled 60,263 metric tons in July, up 53.3% from a year ago. Cumulative grind for 2025/26 has reached 553,731 tons, up 7.5% from last year. Ivory Coast has total grinding capacity of 750,000 tons and vies with the Netherlands as world’s largest. Last week, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, reported 750,000 tons harvested for 2025/26, up 25.6% from 597,000 the previous season. However, they have forecast their 2026/27 production to fall to 450,000–550,000 tons due to excessive rainfall, poor cherelle development, swollen shoot disease, aging farms and El Niño. World Weather Inc. is expecting some increase in rainfall in key central and southern crop areas of West Africa during the next two weeks, but they expect it to come slowly, with drier than normal conditions initially.

COFFEE

December Coffee reached its highest level in a week early Monday but was back near unchanged later in the session. Safras & Mercado reported on Friday that Brazil had completed 90% of its 2026/27 harvest as of August 12, a gain of +6% on the week (owing to drier weather) but down from 97% at this point last year. The robusta harvest was nearly done, and the arabica harvest had reach 86% of expected production versus 95% at this point last year. The Brazilian real fell to its lowest level against the dollar since late March, which may have encourage some farmer selling. Near term supplies remain tight. ICE certified arabica fell 4,985 bags on Friday to 231,445,  their lowest since December 5, 2023. Stock fell 12,727 bags last week. In the wake of Colombia’s earthquake, traders interviewed by Reuters said the normalization of coffee logistics could take two weeks and that fixing processing installations could take longer.A representative of global coffee trader ECOM said they expect it to take around 15 days for the coffee flow to normalize. Colombia supplies around 25% of the coffee consumed in the US. World Weather Inc. is not seeing much change in weather conditions across the globe. Indonesia remains driest because of El Nino, and recent rain in southern India has been quite limited and will continue that way. Rain in Brazil will hold off until early next week.

COTTON

December Cotton was higher early Monday, extending its rally and trading to its highest level since may 14. The nearby Dollar Index fell to its lowest level since June 5 early Monday, which is supportive cotton on ideas it will make US exports more attractively priced on the global market. The condition of the US crop is on traders’ minds as dryness continues in West Texas and is threatening some areas of the Delta as well. World Weather Inc. says dryland crops in West Texas have been deteriorating recently and the trend will continue for the next ten days. The Delta is unlikely to see much rain, which could lead to some increase in crop moisture stress. Cotton in most other U.S. production areas are in varying condition with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. Recent rain in the Carolinas and Georgia has eased long term dryness.

SUGAR

October Sugar saw some choppy, outside day action early Monday, respecting last Wednesday’s 12-month high. There are still expectations for a global supply deficit in 2026/27 season due to El Nino bringing dry conditions to beet areas of Europe as well as key cane-growing regions of India and Thailand. World Weather Inc. expects Europe to see gradual relief from dryness over the next couple of weeks, but this may be too late to save the beet crop. Southern and some areas of west-central Thailand will continue to receive lighter and more sporadic rainfall than usual over the next ten days, keeping concerns about lower production brought on by El Nino. India has already seen a rain deficit this year, and record sugar prices have prompted the government to limit exports and discourage ethanol production. The last UNICA report showed 2026/27 Brazilian Center-South production was running around 12% behind year ago levels due rains slowing harvest and crushing in June and a greater focus on crushing for ethanol (as of July 1). With sugar is now paying around 20% above ethanol in Brazil, mills may be incentivized to ramp up sugar production. Dry conditions in July and August likely increased crushing activity. The Brazilian real falling to its lowest level against the dollar since late March, which may also encourage crushing for sugar, which is exported, as opposed to ethanol, which is produced domestically. No indication yet on when UNICA will release its update for July.

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