Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 1.24
May 1, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grain are lower. SU is down 14 cents and near 14.39. SMU is near 430.60 BOU is near 66.99. CU is down 11 cents and near 5.49. WU is down 8 cents and near 7.48. KWU is down 1 cent and near 9.17. MWU is down 2 cents and near 9.33. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is mixed. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa and cotton are higher.
Soybeans are lower. US farmer increased cash sales on Mondays rally. US soybean exports are down 5 pct vs last year. USDA announced new crop sales to China. Russia attack on Ukraine Danube river ports supported World vegoil prices. 25 percent of Ukraine exports are out those ports. There are reports though that today barges are being loaded. EU Ag Ministers are reported to be meeting today to talk about Ukraine exports. China and Russia are sending delegates to N Korea for first time since start of Covid. USDA rated US crop down 1 at 54 G/E. MO and MI have lowest rated crops. IL gained 4 but still low at 33. AR, LA, MS and TN are rated 70 pct G/E or higher.
Corn futures are lower. US farmer increased cash sales on Mondays rally. US corn exports remain down 33 pct vs last year. Corn futures rallied Monday on news that Russia bombed Ukraine Danube ports. There is talk that barges are back being loaded today. EU Ag Ministers are reported to be meeting today to talk about Ukraine exports. China has been a big buyer of Ukraine corn. Trade concerned that now this must be sourced from Brazil and maybe US. If US, some feel US corn yield may now need to be at least 172 to keep carryout from falling below 2,000 mil bu. Brazil corn harvest is near 50 pct. USDA rated US crop unch at 57 G/E. Some feel this weeks hot and dry Midwest weather could drop US corn yield with some near. Despite lower overnight trade. Some feel CZ could eventually test 6.00.
Wheat futures are lower led by Chicago. CME raised KC and Chicago Margins. Talk that Ukraine Danube ports may be loading barges today and EU Ag Ministers are meeting to discuss Ukraine exports may be offering resistance. There is though concern that further attack by Ukraine on Kerch bridge could end Russia wheat exports out of Azov Sea which accounts for 50 pct of Russia wheat exports. There is talk India could reduce wheat import tax. US winter wheat harvest is near 68 pct vs 77 average. USDA dropped US spring wheat rating 2 to 49 G/E. Some are lowering Canada crop to 31 mmt vs USDA 35. Along with fear of Ukraine exports being lowered to World buyers, Ukraine famers are said to be facing bankruptcy which increase odds of lower planted acres in the future. There is talk that Sep Russia wheat prices may be quoted near $251 vs $240.
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