FOMC Statement Issued Today


Stock index futures are lower due to prospects of a hawkish Federal Reserve, along with weaker than expected corporate earnings reports.

The ADP employment report for April showed an increase of 192,000 when up 175,000 was anticipated.

The 8:45 central time April PMI manufacturing final is predicted to be 49.9.

The April Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is estimated to be 50.0, and the 9:00 March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is expected to be 8.7 million.

The main event today is the Federal Open Market Committee statement at 1:00 and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference at 1:30.

There is a very good chance that Fed Chair Powell will pivot to a hawkish stance, which would reverse his dovish commentary at the beginning of this year. Stubborn inflation is the main reason that will probably influence the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Also, the central bank may announce a slower balance-sheet unwind.

fed reserve building


The U.S. dollar index advanced to its highest level since November of last year.

Follow-through gains for the greenback are likely ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee statement.

U.K. manufacturing fell back into contraction as output and new orders both declined.

U.K. house prices unexpectedly fell for a second month, according to figures from mortgage lender Nationwide. House prices declined 0.4% month-on-month after a 0.2% drop in March. Analysts had expected a 0.2% increase.


Financial futures markets are predicting no change in the fed funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting today and no change at the June, July and September meetings.

However, there is a 59% probability of a rate cut at the November 7 meeting.

I would not be surprised to see the probability of a fed funds rate cut at the November meeting diminishing as we get closer to that meeting.

The fundamentals remain bearish, and lower prices are likely. However, the downtrend is subject to the possibility of a flight to quality flow of funds if geopolitical concerns intensify.


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