Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 4 cents and near 12.81. SMZ is near 339.6. BOZ is near 57.95. CZ is up 3 cents and near 5.36. WZ is up 5 cent and near 7.11. KWZ is up 5 cents and near 7.10. MWZ is up 1 cent and near 9.08. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher and testing 2020 highs. Crude is lower but testing 2014 highs. Nat Gas prices projected higher on cold US winter. Electricity shortage slowing China economy. Most hope US infection rate slows increase demand for 2022 fuel. Food inflation higher.
US stocks trying to recover from Tuesdays losses. Higher Dollar and selloff in Crude weighed on grains. Threat of US shutdown and passage of massive spending raises fears of higher taxes lower stock prices.
US central and south plains should get needed rains. US north plains, PNW and Canada prairies are dry. West France is wet. Rains delay corn harvest. Balkans and Black Sea are dry. Ukraine corn yields lower. Most of Brazil and Argentina are dry. Farmers selling less cash due to dryness and higher input costs.
Baltic dry ocean freight is at 12 year highs. Trade looking for more China buying US corn and soybeans. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil futures higher. Corn and soymeal lower. China loading French wheat. Matif rapeseed futures new highs could be overbought. Matif corn futures higher delays in harvest. Brazil ban on imported GMO wheat could stop Argentina. 6.7 mmt imports. US/Russia exports?
US farmers remain reluctant sellers of additional corn crop. Willing to store for higher prices. Best US corn crops are in KY, MI, NE, OH, WI. Lowest IA, MN, ND, and SD. USDA corn yield high?
Same farmers could increase soybean cash sales due to uncertain China buying and 2022 SA crops. Best US soybean crops are in IL, LA, MS, TN, WI. Lowest IA, MN, ND, and SD. USDA soybean yield high?
Grain traders will watch to see if Congress raises debt ceiling. USDA will release Sep 1 stocks Thursday. Trade est US Sep 1 wheat stocks 1,852 vs 2,158 ly, corn 1,155 vs 1,919 ly, soybeans 174 vs 525 ly. Over the last few USDA stocks report, USDA numbers were below trade est, futures were sharply higher. Some feel end users should add 2022 coverage before US harvest is done and export demand improves.
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