Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 1.24
May 1, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Weather, weather, weather. SU is up 22 cents and near 14.41. SMU is near 434.0. BOU is near 62.78. CU is up 21 cents and near 5.50. WU is up 27 cents and near 6.98. KWU is up 17 cents and near 8.44. MWU is up 10 cents and near 8.87. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $76.
SU is approaching 14.50. SX is over 14.00. Soymeal has rallied to 434 on good US exports. BOU is in a sideways price pattern between 61.40 and 64.15. Most of US Midwest will be dry over the next 2 weeks. There is signs that temps move to above normal the 2nd week. US export remain slow. Brazil shipped a record amount of soybeans, soymeal, corn and wheat of 18 mmt in July. First 7 months exports are a record 106.1 mmt vs last years previous record of 89. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices were higher. One group is now est US soybean yield at 51 and US 2023/24 carryout near 155 vs USDA 300.
CU is near 5.50. CZ is over 5.50. Most of US Midwest will be dry over the next 2 weeks. There is signs that temps move to above normal the 2nd week. US export remain slow. There are rumors of China asking for US fall corn export prices. There is talk of no vessels for Ukraine port loading but Ukraine grains are being transshipped through Constanza. Dalian corn prices were higher. Brazil shipped a record amount of soybeans, soymeal, corn and wheat of 18 mmt in July. August cattle futures are testing recent high. August hog futures are between 94-100 bu but near season highs. One group is now est US corn yield at 173 and US 2023/24 carryout near 1,965 vs USDA 2,262.
WU is near 7.00 on fund short covering. KWU is near 8.50. MWU is near 9.00. Dry Canada and US HRS area plus rains slowing N EU and US SRW harvest offers support. S EU, N Africa and Middle east are also warm. There is talk of drier SRW weather the 2nd week. China June wheat imports were a record 820 mt but down from May 1.15. Most of imports are from Australia but could switch seasonally to EU and Russia. Russia July wheat exports were a record 4 mmt. There are rumors that India may be buying Russia wheat for import.
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