Grains Start Lower as Dollar is Higher

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are lower. SX is down 7 cents and near 13.76. SMZ is near 400.5. BOZ is near 64.61. CZ is down 3 cents and near 6.80. WZ is down 4 cents and near 8.98. Overnight high was 9.16. KWZ is down 2 cents and near 9.86. Overnight high was 10.00. MWZ is down 5 cents and near 9.71. Overnight high was 9.85.

CBOT soybeans are lower with US dollar higher and equities lower. Soymeal future fell on Tuesday for the 9th day in 10 and ended at its lowest level since mid-August. There are no quotes for Gulf meal prior to LH Dec, and Cif bean bids for were reported as high as +225. River levels continue to drop. Weekly US export sales report will be watched for indications that USDA will drop export numbers and increase end stocks.

CBOT corn is lower with US dollar higher and equities lower. There are no quotes for Gulf corn prior to LH Dec. Ukraine corn is still cheapest at $271. US River levels continue to drop. There are no nearby barge bids. Dec could be 750. Weekly US export sales report will be watched for indications that USDA will drop export numbers. Trade will also be watching US harvest yields and if USDA increase end stocks with US crop lower but exports also lower. Trade will be watching todays weekly ethanol production and stocks report for indication of demand.

CBOT wheat is lower. Iraq, Tunisia and Algeria are tendering for wheat. Jordan passed. A shortage of dollars has left private Egyptian importers unable to pay for some 700kt of wheat that is stuck in port, shutting down around 80% of mills producing commercially sold bread and other flour products. The debate goes on about the extent of demand destruction, Ukraine war and Turkey’s diminishing role in the movement of Black Sea wheat. US SRW near $405, Germany $359, France $354 and Russia $335. USDA could lower World supply o Oct 12 but they could also lower demand.

US 30-day Midwest weather looks dry with warm temps west and cool east. Argentina remains dry. Central Brazil is expected to see normal weather. S Brazil rains is slowing plantings there. Rains in Russia also slowing plantings.

US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper are lower. Coffee, cocoa, sugar are higher. Some talk US Fed will increase US rates 75 basis points in November. China may be on holiday but reports show the country’s financial crises to be getting worse. In anticipation of massive losses in the real estate sector ($300 billion liabilities just for Evergrande). Chinese banks have gone massively to the bond market to build their reserves.

 

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

ADM & Industry News

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now