Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
by Steve Freed
Grains are quietly mixed. SN is up 1 cent and near 8.48. CN is unchanged and near 3.25. WN is unchanged and near 5.44. Grains were up this week on China analytical group report that China could soon buy 10 mmt US soybeans, 1 mmt US cotton and 20 mmt US corn for reserves. There is no timeline for buying. Slow US export pace, normal US Midwest weather forecast and drop in US domestic corn demand offers resistance. Need China buying US or a US global weather issue to push grain futures higher.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 11 cents. WN range 5.33-5.61. Corn is down 5 cents CN range 3.09-3.31; Soybeans up 3 cents. Range 8.18-8.56.; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil down 70 points.
US 6-10 day calls for cool temps and dry west with normal rains east. 8-14 day is normal temps except in great lakes which could be cooler. US plantings should continue to advance.
China’s top pig and poultry producer Wens Foodstuff Group Co. said Friday that its net profits more than tripled in 2019; net profits surged 253 percent year on year to 13.97 billion yuan (about 1.97 billion U.S. dollars) last year.
The worsening of a historic drop in the level of Argentina’s Parana River has forced agro-export companies to further cut the size of corn and soy shipments just as this season’s harvest intensifies. Rains are forecasted.
Ukraine’s corn export prices declined over the past week on declining demand from exporters and an expected decrease in biofuel production, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said; export bid prices for Ukrainian corn fell to $172-176 per ton FOB Black Sea as of April 23, from $178-183 per ton as of the middle of last week
The condition of French soft wheat and barley crops declined for the second week in a row, farm office France AgriMer said. Rains are forecasted there. North Europe is dry. Russia 2nd week forecast reduced rains.
On Thursday, Managed Money were buyers of 1,000 wheat , bought 3,000 corn, bought 4,000 soybeans and 1,000 soymeal and bought 1,000 soyoil We estimate Managed funds are net long 23,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 158,000 Corn; net long 8,000 Soybeans; net long 5,000 lots of Soymeal and; net short 13,000 Soyoil.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
