Written Commentary
Global Ag News for June 8.23
June 8, 2023
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SF is down 11 cents and near 14.38. SMF is near 403.0. BOF is near 73.70. CH is down 4 cents and near 6.58. WH is down 3 cents and near 8.31. KWH is up 2 cents and near 9.41. MWH is up 8 cents and near 9.66. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold. Silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Corn futures are lower on concern about new demand for US corn exports. USDA 10 year baseline showed a higher year on year corn yield and flat growth in ethanol. This could weigh on deferred corn futures. Some suggest US farmers sell 2023 cash near 6.40 CZ23. SA weather is mostly favorable and Brazil and Ukraine corn export prices are below US. Some could see US 2023/24 corn carryout close to 2,000 mil bu. CZ23 could drop closer to 5.50. Meetings continues on outcome of Ukraine export corridor.
Chicago March wheat futures made 2 month lows last week. They are mixed overnight. Fact Russia wheat export prices $30-40 below EU and $100 below US is bearish wheat futures. US HRW areas are still dry. Some look for US 2023 wheat crop near 1,900 mil bu, carryout near 660 which could push WN23 below 8.00. Drop in supplies of World protein wheat may be helping MWH.
Soybean futures rallied last week on talk China may relax some of its strict Covid policy and higher soyoil prices. Some feel SF near 14.50 could be strong resistance if China is a slow buyer of US soybeans and SA crops are record. 14.00 is support for now. USDA 10 year baseline numbers showed increase in US soybean yield and carryout. Some feel demise of La Nina and “normal” US 2023 weather could increase US carryout and push SX23 closer to 12.50.
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