Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 1 cent and near 12.63. SMZ is near 339.4. BOZ is near 55.16. CZ is down 3 cents and near 5.18. WZ is down 1 cent and near 6.99. KWZ is unch and near 6.99. MWZ is unch and near 8.94. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
US stocks are higher after Mondays selloff. US Dollar is lower. Will US Fed announce this week a plan for tapering? US/World economies are slowing. China is on Holiday. There is word that some US gulf elevators could be operational as early as late next week. US and Baltics are dry. Rains in Russia. Brazil and Argentina are dry. Rains forecasted for Brazil next week. Argentina has new Cabinet including Ag Minister.
USDA rated US corn crop 59 pct G/E vs 58 last week and 61 last year. The big surprise was 12 pct increase in ILL. KY, MO, NE, OH and WI saw small gains. IA, MN, ND, SD dropped. 57 pct crop is mature. 10 pct of the crop was harvested. Higher IL rating despite talk harvest yields were below expectations. US export pace remains slow due to reduced gulf exports. 20-22 pct of Brazil 1st season corn crop is planted.
USDA rated US soybean crop 58 pct G/E vs 57 last week. Here again, the big surprise was 14 pct increase in ILL ratings. AR, MI, MS, MO, NE and SD saw small gains. IA. IN, LA, MN, OH dropped. 58 pct of the crop was dropping leaves. 6 pct pf the crop was harvested. Best harvest states were ND, AR, IN and MS. US export pace remains slow due to reduced gulf exports. China is closed for Holiday. Palmoil prices are lower.
Wheat futures are mixed. Rains in Russia offered resistance along with Mondays risk off trade in equities and most commodities. Demand uncertainty remain due to Covid spread and talk of slower economic growth and reduced disposable income. 21 pct of the US winter wheat crop is planted. CO 48, KS 12, OK 15, NE 35, IN 6, OH 2, WA 58, OR 7. A lot of questions about lower Canada, EU and Russia export totals.
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