Grains Mixed/Lower in Quiet Trade

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed to lower. SH is down 12 cents and near 14.71. SMH is near 449.7. BOH is near 62.88. CH is down 4 cents and near 6.48. WH is unch and near 7.53. KWH is down 1 cent and near 8.42. MWH is down 2 cents and near 9.07. Crude, metals and softs may be up on talk China will try to stimulates its economy.

Soybeans and soymeal are lower. The 2 week Argentina weather forecast calls for 75 pct coverage of .50-1.50 inches of rain next week. Another even could drop similar rain the following week. Some est US 2022/23 soybean carryout near 260 mil bu vs USDA 220 and 2023/23 near 400. Key for 2022/23 is lower demand and for 2023/24  higher acres and trend yield.

Forecast of Argentina rains triggered selling in corn futures. Russia continues to bomb key Ukraine cities. There is concern about new Russia offensive toward Kiev and from Belarus. China demand for US corn is absent. US feed and fuel demand could slow. Some est US 2022/23 corn carryout near 1,250 mil bu vs USDA 1,257 and 2023/24 near 2,040. 2023/24 Key is higher acres and trend yield. Some suggest shorting 6.50 CH and 6.00 CZ23.

Wheat futures ended lower on Friday after inability to trade over key resistance near 7.70 WH. Some Black Sea weather premium maybe be taking out of futures. Russia export prices are still cheapest but there is weather and inspection logistical problems slowing Russian exports. Dry and cold US plains weather could offer support. Fact wheat works into feed rations could also offer support. Most look for US 2023/24 wheat carryout near 600 mil bu. Total demand is est near 1,920 mil bu with exports near 810 and a crop near 1,835 vs 1,650 ly.

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