Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 4 cents and near 12.91. SMZ is near 386.1. BOZ is near 59.14. CZ is down 2 cents and near 4.75. WZ is down 2 cents and near 5.77. KWZ is down 4 cents and near 7.06. MWZ is down 2 cents and near 7.67. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
Soybean futures are lower. Dalian soybean futures were lower. Soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. One group estimates US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 258 mil bu vs USDA 250 due to lower demand. They also estimate US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 252 vs USDA 220. Higher crush cannot offset lower exports vs USDA. Last week China bought 3-4 Brazil OND soybean cargoes, 2-3 Argentina Oct and 1-2 US Oct PNW.
Corn futures are lower. East US Midwest was dry and should help harvest. Yields are variable. West was wet. Brazil is dry. Brazil and US corn export prices are on par to buyers. Over the weekend, Russia refused to reopen the Ukraine export corridor. Ukraine continues to attack key Crimea military and navel locations. US farmer remains slow seller of corn with ethanol margins positive. Managed Money could cover some shorts before USDA report on Friday. One group estimates US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 258 mil bu vs USDA 250 due to lower demand. They also estimates US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 252 vs USDA 220. Higher crush cannot offset lower exports vs USDA. Thus due to lower exports vs USDA.
Wheat futures are lower. Australia remains dry. It remains warm and dry across S Russia winter crops area. US south plains is dry. Higher Russia export supplies and lower prices limit upside in futures. One group estimates US 2023/24 wheat carryout near 669 vs USDA 615.This due to slight increase in the crop and drop in domestic feed use.
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