Written Commentary
US Dollar Likely to Recover
October 8, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 5 cents and near 13.11. SMF is near 421.1. BOF is near 50.20. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.91. WH is up 5 cents and near 6.36. KWH is up 4 cents and near 6.67. MWH is up 2 cents and near 7.41. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher.
SF is near 13.11. SF found support near 13.00. Resistance near 13.20. There is talk China bought 3-4 US soybean cargoes for Jan-Feb. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. US domestic soymeal basis were firm on fire at S Carolina crush plant. There was more soymeal futures short covering. There is increase in global vegoil supplies but soyoil bulls are still looking for higher US domestic use to rally futures. Trade watching post Argentina new President inauguration policy esp fate of export taxes. More rain in S Brazil. Shower are forecast for dry C/N Brazil.
CH is near 4.91 and up the 6th day straight. CH is near 4.94 resistance. There is talk that China switched 10 corn cargoes from Brazil to US. S Korea bought US corn. CONAB est Brazil corn crop at 119 mmt down 10 mmt vs USDA 129. Brazil export supply is on the decline plus farmers are now selling corn until more is known about crop size. US domestic corn use is up while export are down. USDA est Argentina corn crop at 55 mmt vs 34 ly.
Wheat futures are higher. WH pushed above 6.32 resistance. Could be some new selling near 6.50. USDA announced another 198 mt of US SRW to China. This makes 1.6 mmt US SRW bought. Some est total near 1.75. US SRW end stocks are on the decline with SRW export commit 90 pct of USDA goal. Egypt bought 180 mt Ukraine and Russia wheat.
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