Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Sept 28.23
September 28, 2023
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 9 cents and near 14.18. SMZ is near 413.5. BOZ is near 62.79. CZ is up 4 cents and near 6.75. WZ is up 4 cents and near 9.08. KWZ is up 5 cents and near 9.81. MWZ is up 3 cents and near 9.75.
Soybean futures held 14.00 support. There is resistance from 14.19 to 14.27 to 14.33 to 14.44. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 300-850 mt vs 446 last week. Trade continues to be worried about lower China demand and higher 2023 South America crops. China Yuan is at 14 year low. SMZ tested 410. BOZ tested 60.75 on continued lower palmoil prices. Soybean board crush is lowest level since early August. Friday is month end, quarter end and USDA stocks report. Formula for volatility.
Corn futures are higher. Some buying linked to higher Crude but weekly ethanol production dropped 6 pct. Cash markets are mixed. Farmer is not selling but low river water levels could weigh on basis. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 250-800 mt vs only 182 last week. Slow exports and approaching US harvest offered resistance. Ukraine war and concern about futures corn exports offers support. Friday is month end, quarter end and USDA stocks report. Formula for volatility. Matif corn is higher on low supplies.
Wheat futures rallied on Wednesday on concern over Black Sea exports. Russia “land grab” of Ukraine territory could increase sanctions against Russia. There remains concern about securing freight and insurance for Russia grain vessels. US south plains remains dry. Matif wheat futures rallied to 3 month highs on supplies concerns. WZ is back near recent high with resistance near 9.17 and 9.28.
US Dollar is higher. US stocks, gold, silver, coffee, sugar and cotton are lower. Crude, copper, coffee and coffee are higher.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Latest News & Market Commentary
ADM & Industry News
Gov’t Shutdown May Delay Reports
September 28, 2023
Global Ag News for Sept 28.23
September 28, 2023
