Grains Continue Higher Trend
Grains are higher. Some cash are now quoting the July. SK is near 15.18. SN is up 19 cents and near 14.98. SX is up 13 cents and near 13.23. 13.75 next objective. SMN is near 419.6. BOK is near 61.49 and highest since 2008. Next objective 2008 high 71.26. CK is near 6.32. CN is up 5 cents and near 6.12. CZ is up 5 cents and near 5.41 and new highs. 5.80 next objective. WK is up 7 cents and near 6.81. 6.93 next objective. WN is near 6.82. KWK is up 7 cents and near 6.38. 2021 high 6.60 next objective. KWN is near 6.45. MWK is up 7 cents and near 6.84. 7.00 next objective. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower.
Chinese Ag futures (September) settled up 63 yuan in soybeans, up 43 in Corn, up 147 in Soymeal, up 144 in Soyoil, and up 184 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 57 ringgit at 3,951 (basis July) at midsession on tight production, soyoil gains.
Increase global cases of virus increasing concern about economic rebound and energy demand.
Asian grain markets are all higher. EU and Canada rapeseed higher and new contract highs. China has divided country into 5 region to combat ASF. Global climate summit includes US and China.
US 6-10 day calls for above normal temps and normal Midwest rains. 8-14 normal temps/rains. Cold US weather is slowing early corn development and stressing US and EU winter wheat.
In 2008 April 1 SX was near 10.85 rallied to 16.37. CZ started at 5.73 rallied to 7.99. IN 2012 April 1 SX was near 13.63 rallied to 16.93. CZ started at 5.40 rallies to 8.21. Soyoil futures near 2008 high and 42 pct of board crush which is highest in 9 years. US cash crush +1.00.
China bought .5-1.0 mmt new crop French wheat, 1.5-2.0 mmt US new crop corn.
US cash corn basis strong. Ethanol margins improving. USDA to low on export guess.
Brazil is dry. Crop est dropping. There is talk of US corn into N Brazil. Argentina corn into S Brazil.
US April Cattle on feed up 6 pct. Placements up 33 pct. June cattle below 117. June hogs below 105
US wheat futures higher on US weather concerns. Canada, EU and Back Sea crops off to slow start. Market watching closely colder than normal US winter wheat temps and impact on crops.
Next US key data is weekly export sales reports. USDA May 12 21/22 US S/D now key. Weekly US wheat export sales est 0-200 mt, corn 300-800 and soybean -100 to 200.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 27,000 contracts of Corn; net bought 12,000 Soybeans; bought 1,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 8,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 16,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 488,000 Corn; net long 196,000 Soybeans; long 56,000t Soymeal, and; net long 111,000 Soyoil.
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