Grains Are Off to Lower Start


What a week. Grains are lower. What goes up should go down especially in a bull market. SK down 7 cents and near 15.25. SN is near 15.05. SX is down 11 cents and near 13.26. SMK is near 417.5. BOK is near 62.59. Next objective 2008 high 71.26? CK is down 10 cents and near 6.39. CN is near 6.20. CZ is down 9 cents and near 5.43. WK is down 7 cents and near 7.03. KWK is down 7 cents and near 6.64. KWK is near 6.64. MWK is down 7 cents and near 7.05. Risk on may be taking a needed day of rest. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 47 cents; HRW up 54; HRS up 41; Corn is up 47 cents; Soybeans up 81 cents; Soymeal up $13.00, and; Soyoil up 435 points. Crushing margins are down 3 cents at $0.65 (July); Oil share up 1% at 41%.

Chinese Ag futures (September) settled up 54 yuan in soybeans, up 22 in Corn, up 42 in Soymeal, up 154 in Soyoil, and up 156 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 75 ringgit at 4,064 (basis July) at midsession supported still on tight supplies, higher rival vegoils.

For the week ended April 15th–U.S All Wheat sales are unchanged versus a year ago, shipments unchanged with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase, Corn up 90%, shipments up 83% (USDA up 50%),

Sorghum up 118%, shipments up 200% (USDA up 45%) and soybeans up 61%, shipments up 68% (USDA up 36%)

Anomalous warmth could dominate most North American crop regions during May – Refinitiv Commodities Research. Widespread warmth likely, with significant anomalies expected in some areas. The Southern U.S. Plains could suffer from lasting dryness with equal chances for rainfall anomalies in the U.S. Corn Belt.

The Biden administration hopes to convince farmers to set aside four million more of acres of land for conservation this year by raising payment rates in an environmental program, but farmers said surging crop prices make it a tougher sell. The push to enroll more land into the 36-year-old Conservation Reserve Program is a part of the administration’s campaign to counter climate change.

On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 19,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 72,000 contracts of Corn; net bought 23,000 Soybeans; bought 5,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 11,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 35,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 560,000 Corn; net long 219,000 Soybeans; long 61,000t Soymeal, and; net long 122,000 Soyoil.

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