Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 18.24
April 18, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly higher. SH is up 6 cents and near 14.83. SMH hit new highs near 458.2. BOH is near 60.63. CH is up 1 cent and near 6.42. WH is up 2 cents and near 7.51. KWH is unch and near 8.49. MWH is up 1 cent and near 9.03. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
Soybean and soymeal futures continue to add South America weather premium. Bears still feel concern about inflation, favorable Brazil weather and lower China imports will eventually pull soybean futures lower. SH is back testing November high. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 600-1,200 mt vs 693 last week. USDA report tomorrow.
Corn futures are slightly higher. CH is oversold and may have seen some short covering near 6.35 before USDA report, dry Argentina weather and higher commodity trade. Crude is trying to find support near $72 on more talk China is reducing Covid restrictions. Still China is buying Crude needs from Russia. Record higher China domestic corn prices could trigger some imports. For now, most imports come from Brazil. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 300-950 mt vs 602 last week.
Wheat futures are also seeing some buying due to an oversold tech picture. WH may have found some short covering near 7.23. US SRW export prices are now below French. Still Russia continue to sell most of imports buying. US HRW is higher than Germany and Russia. KWH may have found support near 8.21. US south plains forecast is dry. MWH may have also found support near 8.90. HRS domestic basis is strong due to slow logistics problems. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 150-350 mt vs 155 last week.
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