Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SF is down 3 cents and near 13.43. SMF is near 427.7. BOF is near 52.56. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.72. WH is unch and near 5.71. KWH is up 2 cents and near 6.20. MWH is up 1 cent and near 7.14. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
SF is near 13.43. New US soybeans sales and higher soyoil futures supported a soybean rally to 13.52 and 20 DMA. There is talk that China may have bought additional 6-8 US soybean cargoes for Feb. Both Brazil and Argentina farmers have slowed cash sales. MB Agro lowered Brazil soybean crop to 155 mmt. They lowered soybean exports to 96 mmt vs 100 previous.
CH is near 4.72. Corn futures seeing more tech selling. CZ-CH carry out to 22 cents due to lower export demand. Brazil corn futures rallied while Dalian corn futures were lower. Brazil 1st corn plantings is near 55 pct vs 69 ly. RGDS is only 37 vs 65 ly. There remains uncertainty over Black Sea corn exports either due to weather or politics. US does have window for new export. Can increase S Korea and Japan buying support futures without China buying?
Wheat futures are mixed. Futures rallied due to being oversold. There remain some uncertainty over potential Ukraine and Russia wheat exports due to weather and politics. US south Plains forecast is warm and dry. Argentina wheat, Brazil feed wheat and Black Sea wheat is cheaper to SE Asia vs Australia. This is weighing on Australia futures. Stats Canada could est wheat crop at 31.1 mmt vs 29.8 previous.
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