Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 12 cents and near 15.50. SX is up 9 cents and near 13.72. SMN is near 426.7. BON is near 63.82. CN is up 3 cents and near 7.00. CZ is up 4 cents and near 5.85. WN is up 1 cent and near 7.28. KWN is up 3 cents and near 7.03. MWN is up 6 cents and near 7.75 and new highs. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is higher. Copper is making new highs. Lumber again up the daily limit. Yellen backpedaling about need for higher rates. Buffest said we are seeing higher inflation.
Chinese Ag futures are closed for holiday until Thursday. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 3 ringgit at 4,045 (basis July) at midsession in quiet trade.
US Midwest 7 day rains are expected across MO, S IL, S IN and Delta. These are too wet. US Midwest 6-10 day forecast calls for normal to below temps and normal rains except north plains. US Midwest and north hemisphere weather entering critical 4 month period.
Weekly US ethanol production should be near last week and above last year. Stocks below last year.
Weekly US export sales should show slow soybean and wheat demand and steady corn demand.
Brazil soybean export prices soft waiting for new China buying. Still concern China economy peaking?
Argentians Parana river levels dropping and forecast vessel to be light loaded.
US domestic soybean basis firm on higher crush demand and US exports reaching USDA goal.
US domestic corn basis supported by higher ethanol demand and lower Brazil crop increasing US export. Brazil Parana state lowered their corn crop rating to 28 pct G/E from 40 last week.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 22,000 in Corn; bought 9,000 Soybeans; net bought 4,000 Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 414,000 Corn; long 180,000 Soybeans; long 50,000t Soymeal, and; net long 107,000 Soyoil.
Deliveries were ZERO Soymeal; 205 Soyoil; 12 Rice; ZERO Corn; ZERO HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; 31 Soybeans; ZERO SRW Wheat, and; ZERO HRS Wheat.
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