Grain Mixed in Choppy Markets


Grains are mixed. SN is down 6 cents and near 14.97. SX is down 5 cents and near 13.42. SMN is near 382.9. BON is near 65.48. CN is up 2 cents and near 6.26. CZ is up 4 cents and near 5.24. WN is up 8 cents and near 6.57. KWN is up 7 cents and near 6.05. MWN is up 7 cents and near 6.87. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.

US Midwest 10 day rains forecasted for OK. TX, KS, NE. Lighter amounts US Midwest. 2 week US Midwest forecast hints of above normal temps and below normal rains. US north plains and PNW forecast is dry. Most of Europe is dry. Central Ukraine is dry.

Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil, corn and palmoil futures are all lower overnight. Weekly US new crop soybean sales est near 225-600 mt, corn 5,900-7,000, wheat 200-600. Brazil May soy exports were a record 15.2 mmt. China asking for US Oct prices. Could take 40 mmt US.

Argentina Parana river levels low. Export taxes possible. Argentina banned beef exports.

Central Brazil remains dry. More talk of a corn crop 90-95 mmt. US corn fob $289. Argentina 238.

EU rapeseed 21/22 imports est near record 6.4 mmt. EU 21/22 soybean imports also record 15 mmt.

Traders still debating US final 2021 corn acres. Most near 93-94 vs USDA 91. One guess 96.8. USDA first corn rating next week. 11 of 15 years was above 70 pct G/E final yield at/above USDA May est. Extreme bad weather in 1991, 2012 and 2020 pulled final US corn yield below USDA May guess. US weekly gas use last week exceeded 2019 levels for the first time in 14 months. Strong into Aug.

EU wheat prices discount to US and Black Sea. Increase export demand should support prices.

On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 5,000 Corn; sold 8,000 Soybeans; 3,000 Soymeal, and; 4,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 14,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 208,000 Corn; long 111,000 Soybeans; long 24,000 Soymeal, and; net long 68,000 Soyoil.

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