Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Not a lot of new news. SX is up 1 cent and near 12.57. SMZ is near 337.6. BOZ is near 62.13. CZ is unch and near 5.72. WZ is up 4 cents and near 7.95. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 8.01. MWZ is down 3 cents and near 10.72. OZ is near 7.45.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is lower. Copper is higher.
US is dry. Should help corn soybean harvest. Russia could see rains soon. Canada is dry.
There was talk of increaser US farmer selling corn and funds slowing new buying corn and soybeans. Some farmer advisors are suggesting adding cash 2021, 2022 sales before USDA report.
US cash soybean rail market saw some new buying that could be linked to new China buying. There is also concern that lower Brazil Jan soybean export prices could reduce US exports. Brazil estimated that soybean plantings are near 52 pct, up 20 from last week and versus 42 last year.
Matif rapeseed, Canada canola and Dalian rapeseed oil futures all higher and new highs. Dalian soybean futures higher soymeal lower. Confusion over China asking people add food supplies.
Trade looking for US September soybean crush near 163.6 mil bu vs 168.1 in August and 171.0 ly. Soybean futures could see lower price trend due to favorable SA weather and est of higher US supply.
Corn futures saw some long liquidation after 80 cent rally from October lows. Export sales slow. Some are looking for favorable weekly ethanol production and stocks number today to offer support.
Matif corn futures new highs on concern over low imports, slow harvest and gas shortage to dry crop. Bulls are hoping for a friendly USDA report due to higher feed, ethanol and export offset higher crop.
Wheat futures saw some long liquidation on overbought tech picture and slowing fund buying. Matif and Black Sea wheat futures higher on talk of lower EU supplies and higher Russia prices.
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